Poll: Menino Holds Strong Lead Over Flaherty

By Paul Connearney
Oct 18, 2009, 9:19 AM
3 Comments

BOSTON — A poll released Sunday on the Boston mayoral race shows incumbent Thomas Menino with a commanding lead over his challenger, City Councilor Michael Flaherty.

WBUR Topics: Boston Mayoral Race 2009

The survey found Menino with a 52 percent to 32 percent advantage with just 16 days to go before the election.

The poll was conducted by the Survey Center at the University of New Hampshire for The Boston Globe.

A sample of 553 Boston residents was selected at random between Oct. 10 and Oct. 15. Of the respondents, 438 said they were likely voters. The poll has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

The center’s director, Andrew Smith, said despite a small drop in support over the past six months, Menino’s approval rating remains strong.

“I was surprised at how high Menino’s numbers have remained in the face of a much more contested election than you have seen in the past.” Smith said. “People still think the city is doing well and Menino is governing well in the light of the economic decline.”

The poll does show Menino has been hurt by the investigation into e-mails deleted by one of his top advisers. Thirty-four percent of the survey’s respondents said they are less likely to vote for Menino because of the e-mail controversy.

Flaherty has 65 percent support among residents who voted for Councilor-at-Large Sam Yoon in the preliminary election. Flaherty leads Menino in only one city neighborhood: South Boston, where he holds a 50 to 37 percent lead.

Overall, Smith calls Menino’s lead significant at this point in the campaign. “Any time an incumbent has more than 50 percent coming into the final weeks of an election, they’re in good shape for re-election.”

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Frank Smith

This is not a poll. It is a survey of residents – not voters. The Globe should be ashamed of itself for printing this rubbish. If you follow the method used by this “pollster”, then turnout on November 3rd is going to be around 130%. The Globe is spinning for Menino.
Bruce Dillenbeck

Internal polling data coming from the Flaherty campaign paints a very different picture of Boston Mayoral race than poll commissioned by Globe. According to internal poll through John Della Volpe from SocialSphere the election is much closer. His findings show a 7-10 point spread based on the likely pool of actual voters on November 3rd. The Flaherty campaign is citing dubious methodology problems in the Globe poll. Thus one should take the Globe poll with a grain of salt. The election will ultimately be decided by which voters are more motivated to turn out on election day – those who are satisfied with the status quo or those ready for a change at City Hall.
Nancy Sableski

Why has WBUR run this story without any investigation of this poll’s veracity? Not only is it a poll of residents instead of voters, it estimates turnout to be over 75% – higher than the last Presidential election. In short, the numbers are bogus! What’s the Globe’s agenda in posting such obviously false information?