Amid Shifting Iraqi Politics, Maliki Takes A Gamble
In Iraq this past week, a major religious and political leader died, and the prime minister took a gamble with his political life. The events could mark the beginning of a new era in Iraqi politics.
Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who passed away Wednesday of lung cancer at 59, transformed the country by promoting sectarian politics. Under the influence of his Shiite political party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Shiite votes brought Shiite politicians to power for the first time, but alienated Sunni Arabs in the country.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki owes his job to the votes of fellow Shiites. But this week he stayed away from a new Shiite political coalition and may go it alone in January's national elections.
Maliki Popular Among Ordinary Iraqis
On the streets of Iraq, Maliki, prime minister since 2006, still appears to command respect, even after two truck bombs ripped through government ministries and nearby neighborhoods earlier this month.
Residents of a damaged housing complex have nothing but praise for the prime minister. He came to see them personally after the bombings and later handed out checks for 5 million Iraqi dinars — about $4,000 — to families who suffered the most damage.
It is unusual for an Iraqi politician to get so up close and personal.
Emad Mohammad, 58, was grateful and says he'll remember Maliki when the prime minister stands for reelection in January.
"Of course, checking on families helps his popularity. [Maliki] feels our pains, this is why we support him in the elections," Mohammad says.
The prime minister's political success is staked on providing security. But he had to admit failures after bombers took advantage of gaps in his plan. Maliki lashed out at Syria for harboring the masterminds, accused other neighboring countries of funding his enemies, and ordered arrests within his own security service.
These were popular moves, says Um Waleed, who lost her home in the string of bombings in mid-August.
"He fired some of the officers just to have security achieved. All of us are with him, he is our flower here," she says.
Factions United In Opposition To Maliki
But the security crisis altered the country's political landscape. In parliament, lawmakers grilled the prime minister's security team. The parliament speaker is a Sunni Arab, Ayad al-Samarrai, who says Maliki has amassed too much power.
"Unless we have a strong parliament, more power would be in the hand of the prime minister," he adds.
These are first steps for opposition lawmakers, says Sam Parker, an Iraq expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In parliament, minority factions — Sunni Arabs, secular Shiite politicians and others — have formed coalitions to try to curb the power of the prime minister, who dominates Iraqi politics and many of the institutions of the emerging state.
The country's top Shiite political leaders — minus Maliki — formed the United Iraqi Alliance last Monday in a move that assures a contentious election season and raised questions of whether Maliki can win a second term.
With five months to go before the parliamentary elections, Iraq's new politics are a source of endless speculation. Will Maliki run alone? Will he join the Shiite alliance? What happens after another major bomb attack?
"What you are seeing in parliament is that a lot of factions — Sunni, Shiite, Kurds — all are finding what they have in common is a desire to limit and oppose Maliki," Parker says.
On a recent evening, Fadhil Abbass, 55, was among a group of men playing dominoes and backgammon at a Baghdad cafe. The men say they support a strong leader.
"Maliki will smash the others. He will win and reach the top," Abbass says.
Transcending Sectarian Lines?
Many in Baghdad say they understand why Maliki refused to join the new Shiite coalition. It's another sign of changing politics. Maliki portrays himself as a nationalist now, running on his record, reaching out for Sunni Arab support.
A young government worker, Mohammed Mahdi Abbas, says Maliki doesn't need the religious Shiite parties now.
"We say that Maliki is a Shiite guy, but now Sunnis praise him before [Shiites do]. God willing, we are one people," Abbas says.
Maliki is taking a risk to win another term. If he runs against the major Shiite religious parties, he could split the Shiite vote. So far, he has no Sunni political partners, and no one can say for certain that Iraqis are ready to vote across sectarian lines.
Mowaffak al-Rubaie, Iraq's former national security adviser who is running for parliament, says that unless Iraq closes the sectarian divide, the country cannot move ahead.
"If we don't cross the sectarian lines, the ethnic lines, the next general elections will be doomed," Rubaie says. "There is no shadow of that in my mind, and we're heading for disaster and total failure, we will not be able to build a state of Iraq."
9(MDAyNzUwMDI2MDEyNTA3MTU5NzcyNTQyNA004))
SCOTT SIMON, host:
This week in Iraq, a major Iraqi political leader died and Iraq's prime minister took a gamble with his political life. Could mark a new era in Iraqi politics.
Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, transformed the country by promoting sectarian politics. Shiite and Muslim votes brought Shiite politicians to power for the first time in Iraq but alienated Sunni Arabs in the country.
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki owes his job to the Shiite vote, but this week stayed away from a new Shiite political coalition and may go it alone in January's national elections. NPR's Deborah Amos reports from Baghdad.
(Soundbite of horns honking)
DEBORAH AMOS: On the streets of the capital, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki still appears to command respect, even after two truck bombs ripped through government ministries and the neighborhoods nearby earlier this month.
Protestors at a damaged housing complex have only praise for the prime minister. A day earlier, he had come to see them personally and later handed out checks for five million Iraqi dinars — about $4,000 U.S. — for families that suffered the most. It's unusual for an Iraqi politician to get so up close and personal.
Fifty-nine-year-old Emad Mohammad was grateful.
Mr. EMAD MOHAMMAD: (Through translator) Of course, of course, checking on families helps his popularity. He feels our pains. This is why we support him in the elections.
AMOS: The prime minister's election success was staked on providing security. He had to admit failures after bombers took advantage of gaps in his plan. Maliki lashed out at Syria for harboring the masterminds. He accused other neighboring countries of funding his enemies, and ordered arrests within his own security service.
All popular moves, according Um Waleed, who lost her home in the attacks.
Ms. UM WALEED: (Through translator) He fired some of the officers just to have security achieved. All of us are with him. He is our flower here.
AMOS: The new rules of the political game were being written in the aftermath of the security crisis. One example was in the parliament, where lawmakers grilled the prime minister's security team. The speaker of parliament is a Sunni Arab, Ayad al-Samarrai, who says Prime Minister Maliki has amassed too much power.
Mr. AYAD AL-SAMARRAI (Speaker of Parliament): Yes, I think so.
AMOS: Do you think that parliament is the right institution to balance the prime minister's power?
Mr. AL-SAMARRAI: Unless we have a strong parliament, more power will be in the hand of the prime minister.
AMOS: These are first steps for lawmakers, says Sam Parker with the U.S. Institute of Peace. In parliament, the minorities — Sunni Arabs, Kurds, secular Shiite politicians and others — form coalitions to try to curb the power of the prime minister, who dominates Iraqi politics and many of the institutions of the emerging state.
Mr. SAM PARKER (U.S. Institute of Peace): And what you're seeing in parliament is that a lot of factions - Sunni, Shia, Kurd - all are finding what they have in common is a desire to limit and oppose Maliki.
AMOS: But in this café, where men play dominoes and backgammon after sunset, Iraqis support a strong man, says 55-year-old Fadhil Abbass.
Mr. FADHIL ABBASS: (Through translator) Maliki will smash the others. He will win and reach the top.
AMOS: Abbass and others say they understand why Maliki refused to join the new Shiite coalition. It's another sign of the changing rules of politics. Maliki portrays himself as a nationalist now, running on his record, reaching out for Sunni Arab support.
For Mohammed Abbas, a young government worker, Maliki doesn't need the religious parties now.
Mr. MOHAMMED ABBASS (Government Worker): (Through translator) We say that Maliki is a Shiite guy, but now Sunnis praise him before Shia does. God willing, we are one people.
AMOS: Maliki is making a risky gamble to win another term. If he runs against the major Shiite religious parties, he could split the Shiite vote. And so far, he has no Sunni political partners, and no one can say for sure that Iraqis are ready to vote across sectarian lines.
Mr. MOFAK AL-RIBI(ph) (Former Iraqi National Security Advisor): So if we don't cross the sectarian line and ethnic lines, the next general election will doomed.
AMOS: Former National Security Advisor Mofak al-Ribi, who's running for parliament, says that unless Iraq closes the sectarian divide, the country cannot move forward.
Mr. AL-RIBI: And there is no (unintelligible) of that in my mind. We are heading for disaster and total failure. We will not be able to build a state of Iraq.
AMOS: It's still five months before the national elections, and in the coffee houses of Baghdad the new rules of politics are a source of endless speculation.
Will Maliki run alone? Will he join the Shiite alliance? Another major attack could change the rules again.
Debra Amos, NPR News, Baghdad. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
