Audit Of Suspect Afghan Ballots Begins
Afghan election workers began auditing questionable ballots Monday from the country's disputed Aug. 20 presidential elections. The election outcome has been stalled by allegations of massive vote-rigging and other fraud.
The audit of some 400 ballot boxes is supposed to settle most of those allegations and determine a winner.
But hours after the audit began, it was raising more questions than answers. Some independent election observers wondered whether an appropriate sampling of suspect ballots is being reviewed — especially ballots from provinces in southern and eastern Afghanistan, where massive fraud was suspected. Others expressed concerns over whether the results would be applied fairly.
Preliminary election results showed that incumbent President Hamid Karzai won the election with 54.6 percent. But critics of the electoral process say there are enough tainted ballots that should be voided to force a runoff election next month between Karzai and the second-place vote getter, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.
Afghan election officials opened dozens of clear plastic bins filled with ballots that are suspected of being fraudulent. Representatives of the candidates and independent election observers were kept about six feet away behind plastic tape, straining to see what the auditors were doing.
Some of the observers were visibly frustrated. They called out to the auditors, asking for identification numbers located on plastic seals on the bins.
"Probably my first concern is there are a lot of things that are not clear," said election observer Candace Rondeaux, a senior Afghanistan analyst for the International Crisis Group.
Afghan election officials say boxes from all but three provinces are included in this audit, randomly selected from some 3,500 polling stations that the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission flagged as questionable.
The idea behind this sampling is to allow for a speedier announcement of final results.
But wrangling over what ballot boxes were to be included in the sampling delayed the audit by a couple of weeks.
Grant Kippen, the Canadian head of the Electoral Complaints Commission, says he hopes the audit and a separate investigation, conducted by his team, of hundreds of fraud allegations will be finished in the coming days.
"We'll let it take its course, and we'll know what the numbers are after the audits are completed — and how we are going to have to break everything out. And we'll find out how it all happens," Kippen said.
But the audit is unlikely to go smoothly, given the track record of how suspected fraud has been dealt with since the vote. Besides lingering questions about how the audit is being conducted, the plan the Electoral Complaints Commission has come up with to apply the results will likely stir up candidate resentment.
In effect, the commission's method penalizes all the candidates equally, rather than those with the most fraudulent votes.
"You'll find candidates who are not in the lead are going to question this method because it basically reduces their numbers as well, probably pretty significantly," Rondeaux said. "I don't know, rationally speaking though, whether or not it keeps Karzai in the lead. I am not a mathematician and, you know, a lot of us aren't. And that's the difficult part about this process, is that, beyond high school math and maybe college math, it's maybe a little bit over our heads."
Kippen agrees the formula is complex. But he says it's the fairest method short of redoing the entire election, which would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. The audit is expected to take several days.
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ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.
MELISSA BLOCK, host:
And I'm Melissa Block.
First this hour, we're going to Afghanistan to the scene of the first audit of ballots from the presidential election. More than six weeks after the vote, workers today began examining suspect ballots. The election's outcome has been stalled by allegations of massive vote-rigging and other fraud. This audit is intended to help decide whether President Hamid Karzai won the election outright or whether he'll be forced into a run-off.
Hours after it began, the audit was raising more questions than answers, as we hear from NPR's Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson. She was one of a handful of reporters allowed to view part of the process.
(Soundbite of crowd)
SORAYA SARHADDI NELSON: In a hangar on the edge of Kabul, Afghan election officials open dozens of clear plastic bins filled with ballots that are suspected of being fraudulent. Representatives of the candidates and independent election observers are kept about six feet away behind plastic tape. They strain to see what the auditors are doing.
Unidentified Man: (Foreign language spoken)
NELSON: Some of the observers are visibly frustrated. They call out to the auditors asking for identification numbers located on plastic seals on the bins. One observer is Candace Rondeaux. She's a senior Afghanistan analyst for the International Crisis Group.
Ms. CANDACE RONDEAUX (Senior Afghanistan Analyst, International Crisis Group): Probably my first concern is there are a lot of things that aren't clear.
NELSON: Like whether ballots from provinces in the south and east, where massive fraud is suspected, are in fact being reviewed. Afghan election officials say boxes from all but three provinces are included in this audit, randomly selected from some 3,500 polling stations that U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission flagged as questionable. The idea behind this sampling is to allow for a speedier announcement of final results. But wrangling over what ballot boxes were to be included in the sampling delayed the audit by a couple of weeks.
Grant Kippen, the Canadian head of the Electoral Complaints Commission, says he hopes the audit, as well as separate investigations by his team of hundreds of fraud allegations, will be finished in the coming days.
Mr. GRANT KIPPEN (Electoral Complaints Commission, Canada): We'll let it take its course, and we'll know what the numbers are after the audits are completed — and how we're going to have to break everything out. And we'll find out how it all happens.
(Soundbite of laughter)
NELSON: Given the track record of how suspected fraud has been dealt with since the vote, it's unlikely to go smoothly. Besides lingering questions about how the audit is being conducted, the plan the Electoral Complaints Commission has come up with to apply the results will likely stir up candidate resentment. In effect, their method penalizes all the candidates equally, rather than those with the most fraudulent votes. Again, International Crisis Group analyst Candace Rondeaux.
Ms. RONDEAUX: You'll find candidates who are not in the lead are going to question this method because it basically reduces their numbers as well, probably pretty significantly. I don't know, rationally speaking though, whether or not it keeps Karzai in the lead. I mean, unfortunately, I'm not a mathematician and, you know, a lot of us aren't. And that's the difficult part about this process, is that beyond high school math or maybe even college math, it's maybe a little bit over our heads.
NELSON: The complaint panel's Kippen agrees the formula is complex. But he says it's the fairest method short of redoing the election, which would be prohibitively expensive and time-consuming. The audit will continue tomorrow.
Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson, NPR News, Kabul. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
