Secular, Religious Blocs Jockey For Position In Iraq

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

And Iraq is scheduled to elect a new parliament in January. The campaigning is now in full swing, pitting Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki against more conservative religious opponents. Some Iraqis say the election is a referendum on whether Iraq's next government will lean religious or secular.

And there's a joke in Baghdad, that every time a new nightclub opens, Maliki gets another vote - which is where NPR's Quil Lawrence begins.

(Soundbite of singing)

QUIL LAWRENCE: Baghdad's night life is back along the Tigris River bank, with cafes and even bars like this one. A singer is belting out popular music, while a group of women dance - fully clothed but still risqué by local standards.

Clubs like this one are thriving, and it's a safe bet that all of the customers here will vote for Prime Minister Maliki, says the club's owner, Majid al-Numani.

Mr. MAJID AL-NUMANI (Nightclub Owner): (Foreign language spoken)

LAWRENCE: The State of Law coalition, led by Maliki, has brought security, says al-Numani, and separated government from religion. Both are essential to running a nightclub that sells alcohol and features female entertainers.

An entirely different demographic is out at the mosque the next morning for the Friday sermon.

(Soundbite of singing and chanting in foreign language)

LAWRENCE: At the Buratha mosque in a hardcore Shiite neighborhood, Jalaladeen al-Sagheer tells the flock that he will be starting sermons early from now until the election in January, because there is so much to talk about.

Mr. JALALADEEN AL-SAGHEER (Buratha mosque): (Foreign language spoken)

LAWRENCE: Al-Sagheer is considered a hard-liner in the Shiite religious coalition that is challenging Maliki's claim to Iraq's Shiite majority.

Mr. AL-SAGHEER: (Foreign language spoken)

LAWRENCE: When he tells the congregation that some people in Iraq want to make a state without morality and without Islam, it's a clear dig at Maliki and his outreach to secular nationalist parties.

But the political lines here defy simplification. The Shiite coalition includes plenty of moderates, but there's also the anti-American followers of Muqtada al-Sadr. And Maliki's own party, Dawa, began as a militant Islamist group.

Mr. AL-SAGHEER: (Foreign language spoken)

(Soundbite of applause)

LAWRENCE: In a crowded reception hall last week within Baghdad's Green Zone, Maliki announced the names on his electoral slate, including a smattering of Sunni Arabs, Kurds and secular politicians. A close adviser to the prime minister, Sadiq al-Rikabi, said afterward that Maliki will get the most votes because he's delivered results for Iraq.

Mr. SADIQ AL-RIKABI (Adviser to prime minister): Mr. Maliki worked hard in this current year and he is working for the future to cross the sectarian border. Mr. Maliki said, maybe one, two years ago, no return back to the sectarian block and to the sectarian tension; and he said and he did.

LAWRENCE: Parliamentary calculus has become a national pastime. Either the Shiite coalition or Mr. Maliki's bloc will almost certainly need some help to form a government after January's elections. Rumors of secret meetings or schisms inside the Sunni or Kurdish blocs hit the newspapers daily, usually to be debunked hours later on the evening news. The Shiite coalition and Mr. Maliki are both courting the nonaligned parties, says Ibrahim Sumaydi, an independent politician.

Mr. IBRAHIM SUMAYDI (Independent Politician): At the same time, Mr. Maliki knows that his sectarian rivals, they also have voters from the Shiite religious and the radicals in the streets and their bases. Both of these lists have to talk to two levels of people.

LAWRENCE: In fact, the two sides may still come together and form a near-invincible alliance. So far, the Shiite coalition appears unwilling to accept Maliki's demand that he be prime minister for a second term if they do come together. But Adel Abdul Mahdi, Iraq's deputy prime minister and a high-ranking member of the Shiite coalition, says the door is still open.

Mr. ADEL ABDUL MAHDI (Deputy Prime Minister, Iraq): Now the programs announced by both are not far from each other. They both look for nationalistic aspirations and programs, although they defend and they will count freely on their constituency.

LAWRENCE: Factors from outside Iraq will certainly play a role in the eventual winning combination. Neighboring Iran hosted the negotiations that formed the Shiite list, and Tehran may still be pressuring to get Maliki to join a grand Shiite alliance. The Americans are hoping that Iran's influence might diminish through the rise of more secular and independent politicians.

Unfortunately, one more factor might play a major role: violence has often swayed the outcome of Iraq's elections.

Quil Lawrence, NPR News, Baghdad. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.