Afghan Vote Audit Nears End; Runoff Likely?
Election workers in Afghanistan audit suspect ballots. - Election workers in Afghanistan audit suspect ballots at the Independent Elections Commission warehouse in Kabul on Oct. 7. A runoff election between incumbent President Hamid Karzai and his nearest challenger is likely, says Afghanistan's ambassador to the U.S. (Shah Marai / AFP/Getty Images)
A U.N.-backed commission in Afghanistan says it is close to concluding its investigation into possible widespread fraud during the country's Aug. 20 presidential election. The results could come as early as Saturday.
A runoff election between incumbent President Hamid Karzai and his nearest challenger is likely, Afghanistan's ambassador to the U.S. said Thursday in Washington.
However, officials in Kabul also say a resolution of the election could come in a loya jirga, a political assembly traditionally used in Afghanistan to decide political matters.
(Shah Marai / AFP/Getty Images)
The four-member Elections Complaints Commission launched its investigation after hundreds of complaints of fraud rolled in following the election. The commission sampled a portion of ballots from more than 3,300 polling sites across most of Afghanistan.
Officials with the commission say the panel has completed the audit and is now analyzing the numbers and fine-tuning the results.
The unresolved election and evidence of massive fraud have complicated the Obama administration's deliberations over whether to commit thousands more troops to the war in Afghanistan. The U.S. strategy to bolster security in Afghanistan by, in part, strengthening its security forces relies on a legitimate government in Kabul.
Preliminary election results from the Aug. 20 poll gave Karzai a slim lead of 54.6 percent of the vote. But the commission could find there was enough fraud to push Karzai below the 50 percent mark and force a runoff election under the requirements of Afghanistan's Constitution.
Afghanistan's ambassador to the U.S., Said Tayeb Jawad, said Thursday that a runoff vote was likely. He was the first official from Karzai's government to predict publicly that the challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, will have enough support to force a runoff. Abdullah, a former foreign minister, gained 28 percent of the vote in the August balloting.
In Kabul, there are signs that Karzai's government is preparing for that news. A runoff would be due within two weeks time, but many election officials say this would be difficult given the logistics of getting polling material and officials to some of the remote areas.
Jawad stressed that a runoff election should be held quickly. Should an election slip too far into November, winter weather would make it difficult for election officials to travel to remote parts of the country and voters would have difficulty reaching polling places.
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ROBERT SIEGEL, host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'm Robert Siegel.
MICHELLE NORRIS, host:
And I'm Michelle Norris.
And we begin this hour in Afghanistan. A U.N.-backed commission says it's close to wrapping up its investigation looking into allegations of fraud in the recent presidential election. The panel's findings will determine whether or not incumbent President Hamid Karzai is declared the outright winner. If not, Afghans may soon have to go back to the polls in a runoff election.
NPR's Jackie Northam has been speaking with officials of the Election Complaints Commission. She joins us now from Kabul. Jackie, can you tell us what the Elections Complaints Commission is saying about where they are in this fraud investigation?
JACKIE NORTHAM: Well, I talked with both the spokesperson from the Commission and with one of the commissioners today and essentially I was told that the bulk of the panel's work has been done. The Commission had done an audit or a sampling of ballot boxes for more than 3,300 polling sites from across most of Afghanistan, and this was the method the Commission used to investigate the allegations of widespread fraud during the presidential elections. That's now done. And the members are analyzing the numbers that they have and what they call fine-tuning the results.
NORRIS: Well, the preliminary results, as I understand, gave President Hamid Karzai just over 54 percent of the votes and it sounds like that would have made him the outright winner. Are we getting any indication that those numbers will be confirmed once the Commission wraps up its work?
NORTHAM: No one on the four-member panel or associated with the Commission has given any figures, certainly not publicly. However, we're seeing indications that Karzai might not get 51 percent, which is what he needs to guarantee him another term in office. For example, one of those indications was yesterday the Afghan ambassador to the U.S., Said Jawad, acknowledged that there would most likely be a runoff election. And this is the first time an official in the Karzai government has made that prediction and so his comments are being taken very seriously.
Jawad also said that a second round should be held as quickly as possible and under the Constitution a runoff is supposed to happen within two weeks of the release of the final election results. But that might be logistically difficult given the nature of the terrain here and the security problems and the like. And people here predict it would be at least three weeks before another election could be held.
NORRIS: If there is a runoff, and it really does sound like it might be heading in that direction, how do they make sure that the same kind of fraud, which was problematic in the first election, won't happen in the runoff?
NORTHAM: Well, there are a couple of things and one of the big ones is this that they would go to these polling sites where that were really problematic and they would find the people who were the election officials there. And they're talking about laying criminal charges against them but certainly they would not use them again. That would be one way of doing it. They would increase security in some other areas. It's just sort of the nature of the beast here, as well, though. It's very difficult. These are very remote areas. So it's really hard, people, you know, to get, you know, to watch over these ballots and that type of thing. So, you're right. I mean, it doesn't guarantee that there's going to be any less fraud, and let me tell you, that's not a fact that's lost on Afghans here. It'll be interesting to see just how many people show up if there is a second round.
NORRIS: Is there any idea when we might actually hear the final results from this Election Complaints Commission?
NORTHAM: Well, the very earliest we could see them is this evening but that's unlikely. The people from the Election Commission say, most likely, it will be - they will release their findings tomorrow, Saturday.
NORRIS: Jackie, thank you.
NORTHAM: Thank you, Michelle.
NORRIS: That's Jackie Northam speaking to us from Kabul. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
