Fraud Probe Expected To Force Afghan Runoff

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

This is MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Renee Montagne.

Whoever ends up in power in Kabul could determine how many American troops end up in Afghanistan. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel underscored that yesterday on CNN.

Mr. RAHM EMANUEL (Chief of Staff, White House): The question does not come, how many troops you send, but do you have a credible Afghan partner for this process that can provide the security and the type of services the Afghan people need?

MONTAGNE: Rahm Emanuel on CNN.

This morning, we got a hint of not exactly who that partner might be, but what the next step will be in Afghanistan's ongoing election saga. A U.N.-backed complaints commission released its finding on the massive voter fraud that's been alleged and kept a new president from being confirmed. NPR's Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson has been studying that report and joins us now from Kabul. Hello.

SORAYA SARHADDI NELSON: Good morning, Renee.

MONTAGNE: How many of the about five million votes cast in that presidential election in August have been thrown out?

NELSON: Well, there's been no official report yet by the Afghan election officials who have to actually certify these results and give us those numbers. But some of the international observers who were here to monitor the election have done their own calculations. Democracy International has found that some - one - let me see, here. Let me look at the votes. It's about 1.3 million votes that are being invalidated, most of those from Hamid Karzai's count, and that will bring him down below 50 - the 51 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

MONTAGNE: So, it means if this is accepted - and you mentioned the election commission, and that is, of course, the official body, different from this complaints commission. If, in fact, it accepts these results, will that trigger a runoff between Karzai and his nearest challenger for sure?

NELSON: Well, that is constitutionally what is supposed to happen, but there's been a lot of political wrangling, a lot of negotiation behind the scenes because from a weather perspective, it's becoming a little bit impossible at this stage to really hold a runoff election across this country. Snows are already setting in in the higher altitudes, and it's going to make it impossible to, in fact, hold a runoff.

MONTAGNE: So if it becomes problematic, because, you know, if half of the country gets snowed in and you couldn't hold an election till, say, spring, what else - what are the other options?

NELSON: Well, one of the things that's been discussed is holding loya jirga, or basically getting all the tribal elders and senior leaders from this country under one tent, if you will, to discuss how to resolve this conflict. And there's also been some discussion of perhaps some sort of coalition government between the two top candidates, Dr. Abdullah being the second-highest vote-getter. And according to Democracy International, his levels actually rise to 31 percent from 28 percent earlier in terms of the number of votes.

MONTAGNE: So just let me - and I'll just let you go, but the talk is of a unity government of some sort of national gathering. NPR's Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson speaking to us from Kabul. Thanks very much.

NELSON: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.