Intel: Al-Qaida Down, Taliban Rising
Obama administration officials, military commanders and U.S. intelligence analysts may debate the proper policy to be followed in Afghanistan, but on one point there is consensus: The Taliban movement has grown in strength in recent months.
The disagreement arises over whether the network of militants affiliated with al-Qaida stands to gain or to lose from this Taliban advance.
The evidence is mixed. U.S. intelligence officials claim that al-Qaida has suffered significant setbacks in recent months. Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department reported that efforts to crack down on al-Qaida's financial support have proved successful.
Treasury's assistant secretary for financial intelligence, David Cohen, said that al-Qaida's leaders have made four public appeals for money in the first six months of this year. "We assess that al-Qaida is in its weakest financial condition in several years -- and that as a result, its influence is waning," Cohen said in a speech before the American Bankers Association and American Bar Association.
But the Treasury Department's conclusion applies only to al-Qaida.
"Many other terrorist organizations, most prominently the Taliban, are in much stronger financial shape than al-Qaida," Cohen said. The fresh Taliban money comes in large part from the drug trade: United Nations officials have put their drug earnings at tens of millions of dollars a year -- perhaps hundreds of millions.
Some analysts immediately seized on Cohen's report as evidence that the ties between al-Qaida and the Taliban have weakened.
John McCreary, a retired analyst from the Defense Intelligence Agency, wrote in his widely followed daily NightWatch blog that Cohen's statement "means that the Afghan Taliban has no need of al-Qaida for financial support."
McCreary wrote: "The conclusion is compelling, that al-Qaida is not a significant influence on the Afghan Taliban movement." That is a view that is propounded by several Obama administration officials.
There are other perspectives, however. Philip Mudd, a veteran counterterrorism officer with the CIA and the FBI, this week downplayed the importance of al-Qaida's financial problems.
"To my mind, money is sometimes overrated," Mudd told a forum organized by the New America Foundation. "It's significant, but I don't see money as a huge impediment to conducting a single attack. I think [al-Qaida leaders] have some significant money problems, but their problems conducting operations are not money-related."
Mudd and others say al-Qaida has been affected by the military attacks directed against it over the past year. Missile strikes have killed many of the network's most experienced operatives.
Analysts are also divided over whether al-Qaida's depleted finances necessarily mean that its ties with the Taliban movement will diminish.
"Al-Qaida has become much more joined at the hip to the Taliban since the Taliban were removed from power in 2001," says Brian Glyn Williams of the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth. Williams travels often to Afghanistan and monitors al-Qaida videos.
He argues that al-Qaida and the Taliban are closer than they have ever been -- both operationally and ideologically.
"In some ways, the Taliban has morphed under al-Qaida influence and become a bona fide terrorist organization," Williams says.
If the Taliban and al-Qaida are more closely allied ideologically, the weakening of their financial connections may be less significant.
Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, takes that argument one step further, suggesting a possible role reversal between the two networks.
"It used to be that al-Qaida paid the Taliban," Hoffman points out. "The question now is whether the Taliban can provide a quid pro quo. Foreign fighters provide training and expertise to the Taliban and other groups. So I don't think the Taliban paying al-Qaida is outside the realm of possibility."
If the Taliban were to become al-Qaida's financial patron, it would add a whole new dimension to the security challenge the United States and its allies face in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Much of the analysis about al-Qaida and the Taliban is speculation, and intelligence officials differ over what it means. That could be one reason President Obama is moving slowly on a decision of what to do next in Afghanistan.
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MELISSA BLOCK, host:
From NPR News, this is ALL THINGS CONSIDERED. I'M Melissa Block in California.
MICHELE NORRIS, host:
And I'm Michele Norris in Washington, D.C.
The debate over how to move ahead in Afghanistan has divided the American people. It has split the Obama administration. It even appears to have opened a dispute among intelligence analysts. Here's one question they're debating: Does the increased success of the Taliban in Afghanistan mean its al-Qaida allies will also grow stronger? Intelligence officials are of two minds on that point, as NPR's Tom Gjelten reports.
TOM GJELTEN: For those who worry about al-Qaida, there is good news from the Treasury Department. David Cohen, an assistant secretary who follows the terrorists' money trail recently told the American Bankers Association that efforts to go after al-Qaida's financing have proved successful.
Mr. DAVID COHEN (Assistant Secretary, Treasury Department): In the first six months of this year, al-Qaida's leaders made four public appeals for money, including one in June of this year when an al-Qaida leader announced that a lack of funding was hurting the group's recruitment and training.
GJELTEN: And what does that mean?
Mr. COHEN: We assess that al-Qaida is in its weakest financial condition in several years. And that, as a result, its influence is waning.
GJELTEN: Its influence is waning. So, even if the Taliban advance in Afghanistan, al-Qaida may not be in a position to re-establish its sanctuary there. Without financial resources, al-Qaida has lost some of its clout. But that's the Treasury Department view.
Philip Mudd, a top counterterrorism officer originally with the CIA, now with the FBI, has a different take on al-Qaida's financial position. He spoke this week to the New America Foundation.
Mr. PHILIP MUDD (Counterterrorism Officer, FBI): To my mind money is sometimes overrated. I think they've got some significant money problems. But their problems conducting operations aren't money-related.
GJELTEN: Mudd and others say al-Qaida has been affected by the military attacks directed against it over the past year. Missile strikes have killed many of the network's most experienced operatives. But new fighters are still arriving.
And another point, after saying al-Qaida's influence is waning due to its money problems, David Cohen, the assistant Treasury secretary, added this caveat.
Mr. COHEN: Many other terrorist organizations, most prominently the Taliban, are in much stronger financial shape than al-Qaida. These other organizations continue to pose serious threats to U.S. interest around the world. The fresh Taliban money comes in large part from the opium trade. United Nations officials have put Taliban drug earnings at tens of millions of dollars a year, perhaps hundreds of millions.
Now, one conclusion to draw here is that a wealthy Taliban movement won't turn for help from an impoverished al-Qaida. So it may be more inclined to break away from the terror network. Some intelligence officers do make that argument. But other analysts don't buy it. Brian Glyn Williams of the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth travels often to Afghanistan and monitors al-Qaida videos that appears to him that al-Qaida and the Taliban are closer than they've ever been, both operationally and ideologically.
Professor BRIAN GLYN WILLIAMS (University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth): Al-Qaida is, you know, much more joined at the hip - the Taliban - since the Taliban were removed from power in 2001. In some ways the Taliban has morphed under al-Qaida influence and become a bona fide terrorist organization.
GJELTEN: If the Taliban is now an ideological ally of al-Qaida, whether it's financially independent may not mean much. Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at Georgetown University, takes the argument one step further. He actually sees a possible role reversal here.
Professor BRUCE HOFFMAN (Terrorism Expert, Georgetown University): It used to be that al-Qaida paid the Taliban.
GJELTEN: Now he says the Taliban leaders may be inclined to return that financial support in exchange, perhaps, for the help they're still receiving from al-Qaida.
Prof. HOFFMAN: Foreign fighters provide training and expertise to the Taliban and other groups. So the Taliban paying al-Qaida, I don't think, is outside of the realm of imagination, much less possibility.
GJELTEN: If the Taliban were now to become al-Qaida's financial patrons, it would add a whole new dimension to the security challenge the United States and its allies face in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Admittedly, much of this is speculation. There are intelligence officials on both sides of this debate. That could be one reason President Obama is moving slowly on a decision of what to do next in Afghanistan.
Tom Gjelten, NPR News, Washington. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
