Scozzafava Out In NY, NJ Too Close To Call

NEAL CONAN, host:

This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington. A close three-way race for governor in Jersey, now a two-way race for the New York 23rd, and maybe just one more game in the World Series. It's Election Eve, and time for a very special edition of the Political Junkie.

President RONALD REAGAN: There you go again.

Vice President WALTER MONDALE: When I hear your new ideas, I'm reminded of that ad: Where's the beef?

Mr. BARRY GOLDWATER (Former Republican Senator, Arizona): Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.

Mr. LLOYD BENTSEN (Former Democratic Senator, Texas): Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy.

President RICHARD NIXON: You don't have Nixon to kick around anymore.

Governor SARAH PALIN (Republican, Alaska): Lipstick.

President GEORGE W. BUSH: But I'm the decider.

Mr. HOWARD DEAN (Former Chairman, Democratic National Committee): Aaaagh!

CONAN: On the day before the vote, NPR political editor Ken Rudin joins us for a roundup of all things political. The Republican candidates for governor enjoy a double-digit lead in Virginia and a bare, two-point edge in New Jersey, the conservative coup in upstate in New York, gay marriage on the ballot in Maine and a few of the more interesting mayoral races.

Later in the program, medical malpractice, tort reform and the health care overhaul on the Opinion Page this week. But first, Political Junkie Ken Rudin joins us here in Studio 3A. Hey, Ken.

RUDIN: Wow, Monday.

CONAN: Monday.

RUDIN: I'm usually here Wednesday. A very exciting off-year election starting tomorrow, but we start with a trivia question, as always. OK, well, OK, the World Series is not over, and I'm somebody who remembers the Yankees being up 3-0 over Boston, knows that it's not over.

CONAN: Did that happen?

RUDIN: In 2004, yes it did.

CONAN: No.

RUDIN: OK. When was the last time the Yankees won the World Series and the mayor of New York was elected in the same year? So tell me - give me the year, give me the mayor and give me the other team that the Yankees beat.

CONAN: So if you think you know the last time the Yankees won the world series and the city of New York elected a mayor, we need the year, the name of the losing team and the name?

RUDIN: Reelected.

CONAN: ?reelected - and the name of the winning mayor. And give us a call: 800-989-8255. Email us: talk@npr.org. And well, Ken, let's - we've got to begin with that Damon play last night. It was unbelievable.

(Soundbite of laughter)

RUDIN: I mean, he stole two bases on the one thing?

CONAN: On one pitch.

RUDIN: Unbelievable.

CONAN: On one pitch. The first person to steal two bases on one pitch since Ronald Reagan. Anyway, Maine referendum on gay marriage. This is being closely watched around the country. The last time gay marriage was on the ballot, everybody remember Prop 8 in California. The legislature?

RUDIN: Which went down in defeat.

CONAN: Indeed. And the legislature in Maine passed gay marriage bills that were signed by the governor, and they then decided to put that in abeyance until it was put to the voters in this ballot.

RUDIN: And that's exactly why people are watching it. They're aware of what happened in California, and also no state has ever ratified, or at least the voters in - no state's voters have ever voted to affirm or pass gay rights, same-sex marriage in any state. State legislatures have, and we've seen it in New England. We've seen it in Iowa. But the voters have never done that, and they're watching the vote in Maine very carefully.

CONAN: And there's a lot of money pouring in on both sides, as you might expect, a lot of advertising in the state of Maine. We're listening to ads from both sides. This is a pro-gay group called Protect Maine Equality, Vote No on 1.

(Soundbite of political advertisement)

(Soundbite of music)

Unidentified Announcer: We all share Maine values.

Unidentified Man #1: Maine values.

Unidentified Woman #1: Fairness.

Unidentified Woman #2: Respect for each other.

Unidentified Woman #3: Strong and healthy families.

Unidentified Woman #4: We know the best way to protect and raise kids.

Unidentified Child: Is in a loving and committed family.

Unidentified Man #2: Where all families are accepted.

Unidentified Man #3: We don't make one set of rules for some.

Unidentified Man #4: And another set for others.

Unidentified Man #5: That's why everyone should be able to marry the person they love.

Unidentified Man #6: Here in Maine.

Unidentified Woman #5: Together.

Unidentified Man #7: Together.

Unidentified Group: Together, we can protect equality.

CONAN: So portraying this as a very local issue and trying to appeal to the streak of independence that is famous in Maine, and here's an ad from the other side, from a group called Stand for Marriage. This is the yes-on-campaign ad. It remarkably features a clip from an NPR news story.

(Soundbite of political advertisement)

(Soundbite of music)

Unidentified Woman #6: Here's how some Massachusetts schools teach about gay marriage.

Unidentified Woman #7: Already, some gay advocates are working on a gay-friendly curriculum for kindergarten and up.

Unidentified Woman #8: I know that OK, this is legal now. If somebody wants to challenge me, I say well, give me a break.

Unidentified Woman #9: She says the debate around gay marriage is prompting kids to ask a lot more questions, like what is gay sex, which Alan(ph) answers thoroughly and explicitly.

Unidentified Woman #10: Vote yes on Question 1 to prevent this from happening in Maine.

CONAN: And they identify that clip as from ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, a piece done by Tovia Smith out of Boston.

RUDIN: Exactly. One little quibble I had with your description of it, I don't know if the first ad was a pro-gay ad. I think it was pro-equality or whatever the argument wants to be. I'm not sure if there's a pro-gay there(ph). But again, it's something that it's going to be a very - it's going to be a key issue in a lot of states, certainly watch Iowa in 2010. There's a gubernatorial race there. The gay - the same-sex marriage issue can translate into defeat or victory for many state legislative candidates. So it'll be very interesting to see what happens.

CONAN: And this is going to be a closely watched race. In the meantime, we think we have some people on the line who think they know the answer to this week's - this - today's extra-special trivia question. Of course, you still get a Political Junkie T-shirt if you get the right answer.

We're looking for the year the New York Yankees won the World Series, and the city of New York reelected a mayor. We need the year. We need the name of the losing team in the World Series, and we need the name of the reelected mayor. 800-989-8255. Email us: talk@npr.org. Let's start with Jerry, Jerry from Corpus Christi in Texas.

JERRY (Caller): Yes, I think it's 1981, Ed Koch, and the Dodgers were the losing team.

RUDIN: Well, actually, I hate to mention this. I hate to remind you of this, but unfortunately, the Dodgers were the winning team in 1981.

CONAN: I covered that World Series.

RUDIN: They beat the Yankees in 1981. Ed Koch was reelected in 1981, but the Yankees were not elected in 1981. The Dodgers beat them in six.

JERRY: All right.

CONAN: Thanks very much, Jerry. Good try.

RUDIN: Thanks for reminding me.

CONAN: Oh, yeah. That's so much fun. Let's go next to Ned, and Ned's with us from Chippewa Lake in Ohio.

NED (Caller): Hi, guys. Good afternoon.

CONAN: Go ahead.

NED: I believe it was Mayor Ed Koch being reelected. The year was 1978 with the Yankees beating the Dodgers.

RUDIN: Well, the Yankees did beat the Dodgers in 1978.

CONAN: Oh, it was so good.

RUDIN: The Dodgers had won the first two games, and the Yankees won the last four, but Ed Koch was not elected in 1978. He was first elected in 1977, defeating Abe Became in the primary, but there was no mayoral election in 1978.

NED: And it has to be reelected, correct?

CONAN: Correct.

NED: OK.

CONAN: Nice try, Ned.

NED: Thanks, guys. Have a great day.

CONAN: Let's see if we can go next to - this is Jamie, Jamie with us from Rochester, New York.

JAMIE (Caller): Hi.

CONAN: Hi, Jamie. Go ahead, please.

JAMIE: It's the Mets in 2000 and Mayor Giuliani.

RUDIN: Well, the Yankees did beat the Mets four games out of five.

CONAN: Again, very satisfying.

RUDIN: Well, yeah, I was a little nervous - the subway series, which excited New York City and nobody else in the country.

(Soundbite of laughter)

RUDIN: But Mayor Giuliani was not reelected in 2000. He was reelected in 1997.

JAMIE: Mayor Bloomberg.

RUDIN: Well, Mayor Bloomberg was elected in - actually, Mayor Bloomberg was elected in 2001, not 2000.

CONAN: Because the New York mayoral elections are in off years. They're not in the even numbers. Nice try, Jamie, though.

JAMIE: Thank you.

CONAN: Bye-bye. Let's go next to - this is Tom, Tom in Houston.

TOM (Caller): Can I go way back and guess 1927, murderer's row, I think it was with the Washington Predators and LaGuardia?

CONAN: Murderer's row, that was 1927, yes. One the great years in Yankee history, but?

RUDIN: But not one of the great years in New York City mayoral history because first of all, Mayor LaGuardia was elected in 1933. There was no mayoral election in 1927.

CONAN: And the opponent, I think, that year was the Pirates.

RUDIN: I don't know. I was such a kid (unintelligible).

(Soundbite of laughter)

CONAN: The Senators, in any case, were first in war, first in peace and last in the American League. They would not have been in the World Series. Nice try, Tom.

RUDIN: But the correct answer, I should tell you, you don't have to go back that far.

CONAN: No, no. Let's see if we can go next to - this is Daniel, Daniel with us from Northampton, Massachusetts.

DANIEL (Caller): Hi, gentlemen.

CONAN: Go ahead, please.

DANIEL: 1961, Bob Wagner, Yankees beat the Reds.

RUDIN: That is the correct answer.

DANIEL: Ah.

RUDIN: Yankees beat the Reds?

CONAN: Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.

RUDIN: ?four to one, Cincinnati Reds. There was a guy named Frank Robinson who played on the Reds back then.

CONAN: Yeah.

RUDIN: And Mayor Wagner was the winner, reelected. Do you remember - just a little bonus question here - do you remember who the Republican Mayor Wagner defeated that year?

DANIEL: Did they have Republicans back then?

(Soundbite of laughter)

RUDIN: Well, it was Louis Lefkowitz, who was the state attorney general.

DANIEL: Ah, OK. The attorney general later on.

CONAN: Yes, attorney general for life.

RUDIN: Right, but?

DANIEL: And if you ask the same question with a Mets twist, last time the Mets won the World Series and a mayor was reelected, who would it be?

RUDIN: I'm sorry, the phone is no longer working.

(Soundbite of laughter)

CONAN: Daniel, stay on hold. We're going to collect your particulars. You will be mailed a no-prize T-shirt in return for the promise of your taking a digital picture so we can put it on the wall of shame, and we're going to get our producer together to put that wall of shame up so people can find it.

DANIEL: Thank you, gentlemen. I love the show.

CONAN: Thank you very much.

RUDIN: Two quick things about Daniel just said, of course, was the Mets won it in 1969 when Mayor Lindsay was reelected. I think that's what he was referring to, and Louis Lefkowitz, the first big, balanced ticket in New York City history, Louis Lefkowitz, Paul Fino and James Gilhooley(ph) - a Jew, an Italian and an Irish guy - 1961 Republican ticket in New York City. Did I say Irish guy?

CONAN: You did say Irish guy. Yeah, that's all right. Let's go to Atlanta, Georgia, a big mayoral election there tomorrow.

RUDIN: Well, it's very interesting because one, the frontrunner's a woman by the name of Mary Norwood, and it's not that she'd be the first female mayor of Atlanta, because Shirley Franklin is the current mayor, who - so they already have had a woman. But this is the first white - Mary Norwood is a white candidate. Atlanta has been electing black mayors since 1973 with Maynard Jackson. They elected - they had Andrew Young. They had, you know, African-American mayors since then. But this is a fiscally conservative white candidate who has a chance of either finishing first - if she doesn't get 50 percent, it goes to a December runoff. But it could be the end of African-American mayors in what basically has been the cradle of the civil rights movement in Atlanta.

CONAN: Any other mayoral races you're looking at, quickly?

RUDIN: Well, of course, New York City, Michael Bloomberg has already spent $100 million and is likely to beat William Thompson. Thomas Menino in Boston is going to be the - is the longest-serving mayor in Boston history, likely to get a fifth term. And also, it's interesting, in Houston, Houston may elect its first gay female mayor, first gay female mayor of a large American city. So that could happen there in Houston.

CONAN: In a couple of minutes, we're going to be focusing on the withdrawal of the Republican candidate in a congressional race in Upstate New York, in the New York 23rd, but a couple of interesting withdrawals in governors' races, one in California, another in New Mexico.

RUDIN: Well, in New Mexico, Heather Wilson, former congresswoman who gave up her seat to run for the Senate in New Mexico, she was going to be the Republican frontrunner for governor to succeed Bill Richardson, who's retiring in 2010, she announced last week she's not running. And the bigger news, I think, Gavin Newsom, the mayor of San Francisco, who had been running against Jerry Brown - once the youngest governor, now soon to be perhaps the oldest governor in California history. Gavin Newsom announced last week that he would not run, and he says because he has a young family and responsibilities at City Hall. Apparently, he didn't know - he didn't realize he had a young family.

CONAN: Or maybe until he realized how little money he?

RUDIN: Little money, and the polls were terrible. Right.

CONAN: All right, stay with us, Ken. And as we mentioned, we're going to be focusing on the New York 23rd. Also, the interesting governor's race in the state of New Jersey, where it is too close to call. So stay with us on that, and stay tuned all this week. NPR News will examine where the nation stands one year after the Obama victory and one year ahead of the elections that will serve as a referendum on the administration. The series is called Pulse of the Nation - where do they get these phrases? And you can follow our coverage at npr.org. Stay with us here for more of the Political Junkie. I'm Neal Conan. It's the TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News.

(Soundbite of song, ?I Wanna Grow Up to be a Politician?)

Mr. ROGER MCGUINN (Lead Singer, The Byrds): (Singing) I'll make you glad you got me in with everything I do. And I'll defend until the end the old red, white and blue. I wanna grow up to be a politician and take over this beautiful land, and take over this beautiful land, and take over this beautiful land.

(Soundbite of music)

CONAN: This is TALK OF THE NATION. I'm Neal Conan in Washington. We just couldn't keep Ken Rudin away the day before the election, so here's your Monday Political Junkie. And there are three national races everybody is really watching tomorrow night: governors' races in Virginia and New Jersey, the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District.

Later on, we'll hear about the poll that has Republican Chris Christie ahead of incumbent Jon Corzine in New Jersey. But first, New York's 23rd is really heating up. Over the weekend, the Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race. Then, one day later, she endorsed the Democrat, Bill Owens. We'll talk with political reporter Irene Jay Liu, who's been covering the ups and downs of that race - and boy, there have been ups and downs.

We also want to hear from you, whether you're in the New York 23rd or not, or in Virginia or in New Jersey. What are the issues that are driving you to the polls this year? Last year, well, everybody went to the polls, a lot of people energized to go out and vote. This year, what's driving you? 800-989-8255. Email us: talk@npr.org. You can also join the conversation on our Web site. That's at npr.org. Just click on TALK OF THE NATION.

And joining us now from the studios of WAMC Northeast Public Radio in Albany, Irene Jay Liu, a political reporter with the Albany Times Union. And it's nice to have you back.

Ms. IRENE JAY LIU (Political Reporter, Albany Times Union): Thanks for having me.

CONAN: Quite a weekend.

Ms. LIU: It has indeed been a very, very crazy weekend.

CONAN: Well, it began first with the announcement that the Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, was pulling out of the race.

Ms. LIU: Absolutely. She made this announcement on Saturday morning to - in a letter to supporters, actually. And it pretty much took Republican leadership by surprise. Members of the 11 counties, the GOP leaders, many of them had not spoken with Scozzafava about it. And certainly, it took D.C. surprise, as well, and I think it - for that 24-hour period it left a lot of people scrambling, until then, of course, the other announcement, which came on Saturday - Sunday afternoon, actually, which was that Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate, was going to be endorsing the Democrat, Bill Owens.

CONAN: And her numbers in the opinion polls were in freefall. She was losing ground heavily to the Conservative - New York state, as those who've lived there will remember, has not only Democrat and Republican lines on the ballots, but always a Liberal and Conservative line, as well.

CONAN: Absolutely. She began the race five weeks ago as the sort of frontrunner, the leader. She had the most - she was most well-known as a Republican assemblywoman, and she - and from there on, she was being attacked on both the left and the right, particularly from Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, and her numbers continued to slide.

She was having a lot of trouble fundraising, raising money to defend - fend off these attacks that were coming from both sides. And I think, you know, after a certain point, the National Republican Party began tapering off their support and hedging their bets. When asked whether or not they were going to welcome Doug Hoffman, should he win, the Republican Party leadership started saying well, yes, of course. He's conservative. And I think from that point on, it really - she just continued to slide, losing support from the party that had originally endorsed her.

CONAN: And no small fact, no small part of that was the fact that famous, well-known Republican faces - Fred Thompson, Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty - all came in in support of the Conservative in that race, saying that the Republican candidate wasn't a real Republican.

Ms. LIU: Absolutely. I think that there was pressure both - certainly, a lot of pressure coming in from outside of the 23rd district, but also from the internal. As you mentioned, a lot of very well-known conservative figures came out in support of Doug Hoffman and were able to raise a lot of money for him.

He - Doug Hoffman, from the very beginning, had received a significant amount of support from third-party organizations such as the Club for Growth and other organizations who had been putting a lot of money in independent expenditures and also fundraising for him, bundling donations from small-dollar donors to the Conservative Party candidate. And it just - it siphoned away a lot of support for Dede Scozzafava.

CONAN: Ken?

RUDIN: Irene, obviously, Scozzafava had to have some support. She's been in the State Assembly 10 years. She won overwhelmingly in her district, but I guess the support for abortion rights and support for gay marriage, the support for the Obama stimulus package seemed to turn off even voters in the district itself.

Ms. LIU: Well, what's interesting is that she comes from - the congressional district is sprawling and very diverse. There's this one pocket in central New York, sort of the southern, southwestern part of the district, which is considerably more conservative in terms of voter enrollment and just in terms of the candidates they elect.

Assemblyman Will Barclay, who represents that district, is much more conservative on social issues and business issues. And so she was representing an area that's a little bit more liberal or sort of has more independent voters, and I think that what happened was that in choosing her and endorsing her, they were sort of representing that part of the district. And, you know, essentially had there not been a Conservative Party candidate, probably a lot of conservative voters might have just stayed home because they didn't have a candidate they could rally behind. But with Hoffman rising, then, you know, especially in that district - that portion of the district, the southern portion of the district - he was able to actually get a lot of voters.

And so, you know, it's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens with those Scozzafava supporters who were sort of ardently in support of her. I mean, even now with the poll that just came out today, women and people in her portion of the district where she represents, still, many of them are undecided. So that could be a huge factor going into the final 24 hours of this race.

CONAN: And what does that poll say, with Scozzafava now out of the race?

Ms. LIU: Well, this poll was taken during - all day during Sunday. So it's very likely that many people did not know who she would endorse. But at that point, when it was taken, Hoffman had 41 percent of the vote, Owens had 36 percent, Scozzafava still had 6 percent, and there were 18 percent who were undecided, which was basically double of even the day before - the couple days before, where the undecided vote was 9 percent.

CONAN: So a serious edge for the Conservative candidate there, but nevertheless, it still could be interesting come tomorrow evening, when the results are in.

Ken, let me ask you a question. This has been described as a conservative coup by many on the Web, and they say this kind of grassroots activity that eventually forced the Republican candidate out of the race could have ramifications nationally.

RUDIN: Well, absolutely. And Newt Gingrich, who suddenly became the establishment Republican in this race because he said, look, we are a big tent. We need - we can't just supply, just satisfy our right-wing base. There should be liberals. Remember, in the old days, there used to be the Clifford Cases and the Jacob Javits and the Ed Brooks in the Northeast, who used to support these issues.

But there's another primary coming up next summer in Florida, where Charlie Crist is the Republican establishment figure. He's being challenged by Marco Rubio, who's a very strong conservative.

CONAN: In the Senate race, yeah.

RUDIN: In the Senate race there. And just as they called Dede Scozzafava a RINO, Republican in name only, they're saying the same thing about Charlie Crist, and they could even be emboldened in perhaps putting Rubio over the finish line next year in Florida.

CONAN: Well, Irene Jay Liu, thank you very much, and we'll be in touch to see what the results of this race is. Hard to remember that much attention being pointed towards Watertown, New York.

Ms. LIU: Absolutely.

CONAN: Thanks very much. Irene Jay Liu, a political reporter for the Albany Times Union, a blogger for Capitol Confidential at timesunion.com and with us today from the studios of WAMC Northeast Public Radio in Albany.

And we're asking listeners around the country what is driving them to the polls this year, Justin on the line with us from Suffolk in Virginia.

JUSTIN (Caller): Hello.

CONAN: Hi. Go ahead, please.

JUSTIN: Well, the thing that's going to draw me to the poll is transportation. Here in Virginia, we have a real transportation crisis, and Bob McDonnell is, you know, really the Republicans are responsible for the mess we're in, and Bob McDonnell?

CONAN: Wait, you've had two consecutive Democratic governors.

JUSTIN: Yeah, but it's not the Democratic - both Democratic governors have struggled to solve it, but it's been the Republican legislature that's prevented them.

CONAN: Well, either way, you're likely to have a Republican legislature, no matter who gets elected governor.

JUSTIN: Well, that's true, but Bob McDonnell is responsible for the failure of the last plan. He didn't defend it. He told us that it was constitutional, and the Virginia Supreme Court said that it was unconstitutional.

CONAN: Ken Rudin, as we look at the polls, Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate, well, double-digit lead over Creigh Deeds, the Democrat.

RUDIN: Right. I've seen everything between 11 and 18 percent difference, McDonnell over Deeds. And I'd like to ask the caller, though, then what do you - how do you explain what's happened in the past year that - once upon a time, we talked about Virginia as a purple state, two Democratic governors in a row, President Obama carried the state?

CONAN: Two Democratic senators, too.

RUDIN: Senators, right, Allen and Webb and Warner, and then you have President Obama carrying it, the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson. So what changed in the year since the excitement about Barack Obama to this apparent excitement for Bob McDonnell this year?

JUSTIN: Well, what I personally think happened is Bob McDonnell, who's an ultra-conservative from Virginia Beach, has been struggling to go to the center and minimize his social views and push transportation and jobs.

CONAN: All right, Justin, thanks very much for the call, and good luck.

JUSTIN: All right, thank you.

CONAN: Bye-bye. Email from Mike in St. Louis. The public smoking ban in St. Louis County is sending me to vote it last week and breathe fresh air in bars and restaurants - if it passes. We have to be one of the last major cities in the country to still allow smoking in bars and restaurants. A major health issue finally makes the ballot. We don't allow bars and restaurants to use asbestos in their ceiling tiles, we should not allow smoke either. Well, that's an advocacy (unintelligible)?

RUDIN: And that email came just in the nicotine.

CONAN: Now let's go somewhere else. Paul Mulshine, a columnist for The Star Ledger in Newark, New Jersey, joins us now from his home in the Garden State. Nice to have you back on the program, Paul.

Mr. PAUL MULSHINE (Columnist, The Star Ledger): Hey. Good to be back.

CONAN: And polling suggests this race we mentioned, that there's been some movement in Christie's favor in the polls. But even if he is ahead as - by two points as the Quinnipiac poll says - that's a very narrow lead.

Mr. MULSHINE: Well, they're coming out by the second. And I think the Monmouth poll was two points the other direction, and about every half hour one comes out and goes the other way. So it's been like that for the last two weeks, and it's absolutely unpredictable.

CONAN: And you mentioned the other direction. I thought this was a three-way race.

Mr. MULSHINE: Well, Daggett - Chris Daggett, the independent, is fading. He had hit 12 and 14 and was climbing. A lot of people are now going to drop away from him as the election gets close. He is buried on the ballot. In Ocean County where I live, he's way, way, way down the - he's down under as it were?

(Soundbite of laughter)

Mr. MULSHINE: ?he's on the Australia of the ballots.

CONAN: So he's below the Socialist Workers Party candidate?

Mr. MULSHINE: He is - yes, below everybody. Yes. He is below. There's 10 independents and he's below the guy from Greece, the Greek guy who sounds exactly like Andy Kaufman.

(Soundbite of laughter)

Mr. MULSHINE: There - we do have a guy like that in this race.

CONAN: So this is too close to call. This is an incumbent Democratic governor. The president has been out stumping for him over the weekend. He says a vote for Corzine is a vote for Obama.

Mr. MULSHINE: Yeah. And he got great turnouts in Camden and Newark. The Obama crowds, they're very enthused. You can count on two things for the Corzine crowd. One is they've had a great mail vote effort. They're going to get about 190,000 mail ballots. And Patrick Murray of the Monmouth poll says they're running 53/39 for Corzine over Christie. That's what happens when you have millions to spend on get out the vote.

And then, the other thing is he's going to do great in the cities like Newark where I work, where they run buses, have megaphones. They have a great get-out-to-vote operation. And Christie had actually planned - he was quoted - his people were quoted in the New York Times in June as saying they were going to cut into that. Every Republican says that every four years - and it never happens. The Democrat always piles up these huge margins in the cities.

CONAN: Ken?

RUDIN: Paul, the fact that President Obama and Corzine were in Camden and Newark yesterday, is there any indication that the African-American turnout is not enthused about Corzine or was it just a basic get-out-to-vote effort?

Mr. MULSHINE: There were some indication - I think everybody's - it's going to revert to its normal pattern. I mean, he has shown - he is packing tens of thousands of people into these things. I went to a Christie event later in the day yesterday and there were maybe 300 party faithful.

When you're getting 20,000 actual voters out one day, that's quite a turnout. And I think he's solidified his base there and his problem is going to be in the suburbs. He's going to get killed in some of the suburban counties like Ocean, where I live, Monmouth, Morris - they'll be huge anti-Corzine. You know, it could go 2-1. So he's going to - he'll have this great urban vote.

Interestingly enough, our biggest county, Bergen, which is in the north and is largely a New York suburb, may go to Corzine. And a Republican has never won the state without winning Bergen. So Christie has the challenge of piling up huge margins in the remaining counties to make up for not doing that great in Bergen where Corzine's running mate comes from, Loretta Weinberg. She's from Bergen and he's - that was a fairly smart move?

CONAN: Balancing his ticket there. Yeah. Paul Mulshine, a columnist with the Star Ledger from Newark, New Jersey. You're listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. Ken, a quick question, and we'll back to the calls.

RUDIN: Well, I just go back to the calls, but I just want to know that once upon time this was supposed to be a referendum on Jon Corzine, but he has, I think, effectively made it a referendum on Chris Christie.

Mr. MULSHINE: He has. He had great attack ads over the summer. It was funny. You know how people love to say you shouldn't use attack ads and all that, but they really worked. And he spent July and August tarnishing the image of Christie. Christie was kind of a blank slate coming out of the June Republican primary, was undefined. The Republicans overestimated the extent to which he could run as a Rudy Giuliani-type reform prosecutor.

Corzine immediately went on the attack. And all summer long, just attacked and attacked and attacked, and drew - and drove up Christie's unfavorables to the point, not where it equals to his unfavorables, but to the point that he really, you know?

CONAN: (Unintelligible). Now - well, billions do help after awhile. Anyway, Paul Mulshine, thanks very much for your time today.

Mr. MULSHINE: Thanks a lot.

CONAN: We'll be watching this carefully. Paul Mulshine, a columnist for the Star Ledger in Newark, New Jersey.

Let's see if we can get some calls in before we got to go. Allison(ph) from Toledo.

ALLISON (Caller): Hi. Thanks for having me on.

CONAN: Go ahead, please.

ALLISON: I live in Toledo, Ohio and we've been kind of in the news with our mayoral race because of some of the crazy things that happened - like the Boo Ben Konop video that was all over YouTube and things like that.

CONAN: It escaped me. I have to admit.

ALLISON: It did make on the Comedy Central. As we have before with Carty Finkbeiner having suggested that we move deaf people out by the airport. And countless other fiascos that has happened in the city of Toledo that?

CONAN: Yeah. That would be an interesting zoning requirement. Yeah.

ALLISON: Yeah. It also made in to the Trivial Pursuit game that he had said that. So - respect in the city - for the city of Toledo is a big thing for me. There's a guy here running named Keith Wilkowski, who's running for mayor. And he's running the path against our current mayor and he has got a strong lead here. But bringing a lot of respect and understanding back to our city that's kind of become a joke around here because our lack of leadership amongst our mayor is really important, so?

CONAN: Alison, thanks very much for the call. We'll be watching the results there.

ALISON: Thank you.

CONAN: Bye-bye. Let's see if we can go now to another - well, another T city, Tucson, Arizona. Paul's on the line.

PAUL (Caller): Hi. Am I on line - or on the air?

CONAN: Yeah. We just got about a minute, Paul.

PAUL: My question is concerning - do you know much about the Proposition 200 in Tucson right now, which increases our police force but also our taxes? And it's been a kind of trying issue for us because, of course, adding to the force seems like a good thing, but we had such a terrible budget and Arizona in general has had such trouble with the budget that I personally am a little bit torn on what I want to do, because there area so many other things. Like, I heard education is going to be really struck down next year with teacher losses. So I'm like, do I want to increase taxes for the police force or is it good as it is? So I was just curious if you heard about it and what you're thinking.

CONAN: Ken, has this been on the national radar?

RUDIN: I have not seen it, but I think that's a big choice that a lot of voters have to decide, whether to pay for taxes by increasing taxes, you pay for service - and that's the dilemma that some of the voters are going to have.

CONAN: Well, it's a big issue really in the New Jersey race too. (Unintelligible).

RUDIN: It always has been. Always has been.

CONAN: Paul, thanks very much for the call. Appreciate it.

PAUL: Sure. Thank you. Like your show.

CONAN: Okay. Thank you very much. Appreciate that.

And another reminder to stay tuned all this week. NPR News examines where the nation stands one year after the Obama, one year - victory; one year ahead of the elections that will serve as a referendum on his administration. The series is called Pulse of the Nation. You can follow our coverage at npr.org. And join us for the Political Junkie on Wednesday of this week when will have results of all of these races and Ken Rudin will be here. Ken, thanks very much for being with us here today.

RUDIN: There's an election at Philadelphia tonight, too, by the way.

CONAN: Yeah. Game five, I think it's called.

RUDIN: That's right. That's right.

CONAN: Let's - coming up, the cost of health care is on the opinion page. A doctor claims it's not lawsuits that are the problem. He joins us next. Stay with us.

I'm Neal Conan. It's the TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.