What The Future Holds When China Rules
'When China Rules The World' by Martin Jacques
Goldman Sachs projects that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027. British author Martin Jacques, whose new book is called When China Rules the World, believes that Americans are woefully unprepared for this shift.
He joined NPR's Guy Raz to discuss the issue, and he started by reading an excerpt from his new book:
"The mainstream Western attitude has held that, in its fundamentals, the world will be relatively little changed by China's rise. This is based on three key assumptions: that China's challenge will be primarily economic in nature; that China will in due course become a typical Western nation; and that the international system will remain broadly as it now is, with China acquiescing in the status quo and becoming a compliant member of the international community. Each of these assumptions is misconceived. The rise of China will change the world in the most profound ways."
Jacques' perspective is informed by having watched the decline of the British Empire over the course of his life, something he calls a "dislocating and disorientating experience."
"The history of humanity is the rise and fall of countries and civilizations and so on, so nothing is cast in stone," he says. "And the United States has enjoyed actually quite a long period in the sun, ever since certainly 1945."
This shift, he says, has less to do with the United States, and more to do with the extraordinary transformation in China.
While he does see China displacing the United States as the world's foremost superpower, he doesn't believe this change will happen in the immediate term. He points to the fact that much of the Chinese population is still living and working in the countryside. But as the nation modernizes, it will increasingly be a contender on the world stage.
Asked if he thinks it would be good for the world to be ruled by China, rather than by the United States, Jacques says in some ways, yes.
"For the last 200 years, essentially the world has been a very undemocratic place. Because a relatively small sliver of humanity, i.e., those that populate the West, have had a hugely disproportionate say in world affairs," says Jacques. "Now the rival of China and India and Brazil and so on ... is transforming the prospects for these people."
This trend, he says, represents "the most remarkable democratization that the world has seen in the last 200 years."
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GUY RAZ, host:
The firm Goldman Sachs projects that China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027, and with this economic power will come massive cultural and political influence. That's according to British author Martin Jacques.
He says that it's just a matter of time before China unseats the U.S. to become the world's primary superpower. Here he is reading an excerpt from his new book, "When China Rules the World."
Mr.�MARTIN JACQUES (Author, "When China Rules the World"): (Reading) The mainstream Western attitude has held that, in its fundamentals, the world will be relatively little changed by China's rise. This is based on three key assumptions: that China's challenge will be primarily economic in nature; that China will in due course become a typical Western nation; and that the international system will remain broadly as it is now with China acquiescing in the status quo and becoming a compliant member of the international community. Each of these assumptions is misconceived. The rise of China will change the world in the most profound ways.
RAZ: Now, Martin Jacques' provocative thesis was influenced, he says, by a lifetime of watching the decline of the British Empire.
Mr.�JACQUES: The history of humanity is the rise and fall of countries and civilizations and so on, so nothing is cast in stone, and the United States has enjoyed actually quite a long period in the sun, ever since certainly 1945. And I think that it's not so much what's wrong with the United States, although I think there are problems, it's more that the last 30 years has seen an extraordinary transformation in China and not only China but other countries, as well, India and so on, but China's the most striking example. And this is the backdrop to the shift in power.
RAZ: When you talk to Chinese experts in China, they say China does not have global ambitions; China has regional ambitions. There is nothing to fear of China.
Mr.�JACQUES: I'm not talking about this period we're in now, which is really still in China's take-off period. I mean, half the people still work in the countryside. I'm talking about, rather, further down the road than that, when China has become a fully fledged modern country, no longer has the constraint of escaping from poverty and can begin to be, as it were, more comfortable with its own history and with its own position.
RAZ: Would it be good for the world to be led by China rather than by the United States?
Mr.�JACQUES: You know, for the last 200 years, essentially, the world has been a very undemocratic place because a relatively small sliver of humanity, i.e., those that populate the West, have had a hugely disproportionate say in world affairs. Now, the rival of China and India and Brazil and so on, which is you know, these are all parallel process happening at the moment - is transforming the prospects for these people and in a rough and ready way I think represents the most remarkable democratization the world has seen in the last 200 years.
RAZ: Martin Jacques, in a recent interview with the Taipei Times, you say that the rise of China will be a very painful experience for the United States. What do you mean by that?
Mr.�JACQUES: Well, I think that naturally, over the last 60 years or so, the United States has become accustomed to being the most important nation on Earth, the most powerful nation on Earth. It will have to get used to sharing the world. It will have to get used to learning from other nations, I mean, learning other languages. It will have to get used to a diminished status, and Americans will have to get used to being part of a nation which has diminished status.
Now, my experience of Britain, having lived in Britain, my life has more or less been framed by British decline since the end of the Second World War, and I think this is quite a dislocating and disorientating experience. It's not that we're talking about American absolute decline. On the contrary, I mean, for example, Britain is a much richer country today than it was in 1945.
So, I mean, what we're talking about here really is the power and influence exercised by a nation in the world.
RAZ: I'm wondering whether or not you take into account a few important factors. One is China's aging population. A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington says that by 2050, for every retiree in China, there will only be 1.6 workers. If you look at China's per capita GDP today, it's still lower than Angola or El Salvador or Kazakhstan. China's defense spending is a small fraction of what we spend in the United States.
So when you consider all these factors, does your thesis still hold up?
Mr.�JACQUES: Well, I think I could add to your list, actually. I mean, China has got lots of problems. It's a vast, developing country. It's inconceivable that it would not have vast problems. The extraordinary thing is the extent to which, over the last 30 years, it's managed to grow at an historically unparalleled rate. And as a result, it's in a very, very different position to the one it was in 30 years ago. Just remember, if you're growing at 10 percent a year, the size of your economy is doubling every seven years, and basically, living standards are moving more or less at the same rate of naught.
Certainly, the position of the United States and the West will be diminished because what's happening is the world's most populous countries are on the move and will occupy a position at the center of the world over time.
RAZ: Martin Jacques is the author of the new book, "When China Rules the World." He joined me from WGBH in Boston.
Martin Jacques, thank you so much.
Mr.�JACQUES: Thank you very much.
RAZ: To read an excerpt from "When China Rules the World," visit our Web site. That's npr.org. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
