Reading Sarah Palin: Will She Run For President?
Sarah Palin's Going Rogue: An American Life made the best-seller list before it was even released, further stoking her meteoric political celebrity. But does the campaign memoir presage a run for the White House or an entirely different path?
Never before has a former vice presidential candidate — a losing one at that — generated this kind of attention. A coveted spot on The Oprah Winfrey Show and plenty of attention from the rest of the media kicked off the book at its release earlier this week.
More than a year after she and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) lost their White House bid, Palin remains controversial, charismatic, polarizing and fascinating.
Although it is clear she has a good shot at a future on the talk show circuit, Palin is coy about whether she'll run for president. On Oprah, she said she wasn't retreating, just reloading.
"Does that mean you're reloading for 2012?" Winfrey asked.
Palin replied that she was "concentrating on 2010, and making sure that we have issues tackled as Americans to make sure that we're on the right road."
"Would you even tell me if you were thinking about it?" Winfrey said.
"No, I wouldn't," Palin replied, laughing.
The former Alaska governor also told ABC's Barbara Walters that the presidency "certainly isn't on my radar screen right now."
In the meantime, Palin is a hero to the GOP's "Tea Party" base — that portion of the party that is passionately and vociferously opposed to President Obama's policies.
"She will play a tremendous role in the activist and the conservative movement," says conservative blogger Ed Morrissey.
It's a constituency that views Palin "as someone very much like" them, he says. "Not somebody from the elite, not somebody from academia, but somebody who's a conservative mom — coming out of that same mold."
And if she does decide to run, she's got a big leg up on the competition, says former McCain strategist John Weaver. Compared with a lot of others thinking of running, Palin has "100 percent name ID," he says.
But that name recognition is a mixed blessing, because so much of the public views her negatively. According to an ABC-Washington Post poll, 60 percent of Americans think she's not qualified to be president. More than 50 percent say they would never vote for her.
Inside the Republican primary electorate, particularly in caucus states such as Iowa, her support is much stronger. Despite the grass-roots Republican enthusiasm for Palin, however, it's difficult to find a GOP strategist who thinks she will run.
"She's got a very loyal and large base of voters around the country that listen to what she says, that she can harness for various causes," says Vin Weber, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota. "But in terms of setting herself up to actually run for president and be the leader of the Republican Party, I don't think she's really doing that."
Weaver, whose work for the McCain campaign ended before Palin was tapped as the Arizona Republican's running mate, says he doesn't see any sign that she is laying the groundwork for a White House bid.
"Had she really wanted [to] become president or play in the [Republican] Party in the long-term, she would've set about repairing the image that came about from the 2008 campaign," he says.
That would have entailed becoming "fully informed about national security and foreign policy issues as well as economic issues," Weaver says.
"There's no evidence that she pursued that path, whatsoever," he says.
But Palin has time — about two years — to figure it out.
Meanwhile, Morrissey thinks she is right to focus on electing Republicans in 2010. Endorsing candidates, raising money and energizing the party base will give Palin a big platform and a way to showcase her clout inside the GOP.
"What will be telling for Sarah Palin is what kind of impact she's going to have on the midterm elections — where she's helpful, where she's not helpful," he says.
"I think that will give us all a much better idea of where Sarah Palin can go in 2012 or in 2016 or in 2020," Morrissey says.
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STEVE INSKEEP, host:
It's MORNING EDITION from NPR News. I'm Steve Inskeep.
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
And I'm Renee Montagne. The book is now in the stores, but Sarah Palin's �Going Rogue� made the bestseller list even before it was released, even before she kicked off her high profile book tour with an interview on �Oprah.� All of which has people wondering how Palin will use her celebrity. Here's NPR's national political correspondent, Mara Liasson.
MARA LIASSON: Never before has a former vice presidential candidate, and a losing one at that, generated this kind of attention. The media just can't get enough of Sarah Palin.
(Soundbite of TV shows)
Mr. BRIAN WILLIAMS (NBC): Sarah Palin rolls out her new book.
Mr. MATT LAUER (NBC): Now the latest on Sarah Palin.
Ms. DIANE SAWYER (ABC): New questions about Palin's future.
Ms. OPRAH WINFREY (Talk Show Host): Please welcome Sarah Palin.
LIASSON: Palin is still controversial, charismatic, polarizing and fascinating. And although it's clear she has a bright future ahead of her on the talk show circuit, she's coy about whether she'll run for president. On �Oprah� she said she wasn't retreating, just reloading.
(Soundbite of TV show, �Oprah�)
Ms. WINFREY: Does that mean you're reloading for 2012?
Ms. SARAH PALIN (Author, �Going Rogue�): I'm concentrating on 2010 and making sure that we have issues tackled as Americans to make sure that we're on the right road.
Ms. WINFREY: (Unintelligible) if you were thinking about it.
Ms. PALIN: No, I wouldn't. Not on this show. No.
LIASSON: In the meantime, says conservative blogger Ed Morrissey, Palin is a hero to the tea party base of the GOP.
Mr. ED MORRISSEY (Blogger): She will play a tremendous role as an activist in the conservative movement in getting people out and in drawing people who see her as someone very much like themselves, not somebody from the elite, not somebody from academia, but somebody who's, you know, a suburban mom, coming out of that same mold.
LIASSON: And if she does decide to run again, says former McCain strategist John Weaver�
Mr. JOHN WEAVER (Former McCain Strategist): She has some luxury that a lot of candidates who are thinking about running, you know, don't have. Like she has 100 percent name ID.
LIASSON: But that name recognition is a mixed bag, because so much of the public views her negatively. According to an ABC/Washington Post poll, 60 percent of Americans think Palin is not qualified to be president. More than 50 percent say they would never vote for her.
Of course, inside the Republican primary electorate and particularly in caucus states like Iowa her support is much stronger. But despite the enthusiasm for Palin at the grassroots of the Republican Party, it's very hard to find any Republican strategist who believes she will run again. Here's former Republican Congressman Vin Weber.
Mr. VIN WEBER (Former Minnesota Congressman): She's got a very loyal and large base of voters around the country that listen to what she says and that she can harness for various causes, but in terms of setting herself up to actually run for president and be the leader of the Republican Party, I don't think she's really doing that.
LIASSON: And John Weaver, whose work for the McCain campaign ended before Palin was picked, says he doesn't see signs that she's laying the groundwork for a White House bid.
Mr. WEAVER: Had she really wanted to play, become president, or play in the party for the long term, she would've set about repairing the image that came about from the 2008 campaign and doing so in a way that allowed her to become fully informed about national security and foreign policy issues, as well as economic issues. And there's no evidence that she's pursued that path whatsoever.
LIASSON: Palin still has about two years to figure this out. In the meantime, Ed Morrissey believes she's right to focus on electing Republicans in 2010, endorsing candidates, raising money and energizing the base. It will give Palin a big platform and a way to showcase her clout inside the Republican Party.
Mr. MORRISSEY: What'll be telling for Sarah Palin is what kind of impact that she's going to have on the midterm elections, you know, where she's helpful, where she's not helpful. And I think that'll give you - give us all a much better idea of where Sarah Palin can go in 2012 or in 2016 or in 2020.
LIASSON: 2020? Why not? Sarah Palin is only in her mid-40s, so she has lots of time to decide if she wants to be a political candidate or a political celebrity.
Mara Liasson, NPR News, Washington. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
