Retirement Changes Players In Mid-Term Elections

MADELEINE BRAND, host:

News of Christopher Dodd's retirement has one effect in the Senate and possibly another in this fall's elections.

STEVE INSKEEP, host:

Here's the way political analysts might think through a development like this: okay, Dodd was an incumbent and incumbents tend to have many advantages. So, in theory, Madeleine, that's bad for Democrats trying to keep his seat.

BRAND: But he was unpopular incumbent and it's a Democratic-leaning state, so there is a good chance a different Democrat can hold the seat for the party.

INSKEEP: This is one of many elections that will affect the Senate's balance of power, and NPR News analyst Juan Williams has been watching them. He's on the line once again. Juan, good morning.

JUAN WILLIAMS: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: Let's remember what's at stake here: the Democrats have a big advantage in the Senate - 60 out of 100 senators, if you count two Independents that vote with them most of the time. What's it mean though if Democrats were just to lose a seat or two or three?

WILLIAMS: Well, they lose a seat or two or three and they lose their filibuster-proof majority of 60. So, in this football bowl season, you could think of it, Steve, like the game clock is running and you're approaching the end of the game and you've got a two-minute drill. Because if President Obama wants to get his legislative agenda approved - now we're not just talking health care reform here; we're talking about financial regulation, we're talking about climate change, education, immigration.

All of that would have to be forced in this season right before the November election to say it's something that the Democrats can do and prevent the Republicans from filibustering or blocking that legislative movement.

INSKEEP: Now, I suppose time could be even shorter than we think here, because most of these elections are in the fall. The Democrats have the 60 for year in theory, but there's a test on January 19 - a special election for a vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts.

WILLIAMS: Exactly right. And polls show that race is really surprisingly close - about a 10-point spread between the attorney general, Martha Coakley, the Democrat, and the Republican Scott Brown. That's a huge surprise because, of course, Massachusetts is such a heavily Democratic state, but Brown has been doing very well in fundraising.

And I think this really illustrates a larger point, Steve, that it's a special election, intensity is key, and right now, intensity seems to be with the Republican Party. A conservative backlash on health care, for example, the town halls that we've seen in the past, the tea party movement, the economy being bad, being blamed on the incumbent president, President Obama. All of this gives the Republicans their best shot in the last three election cycles.

You know, political analysts right now are saying they could win 20 to 30 seats in the House. They could, as we've just said, end the filibuster-proof 60 in the Senate.

INSKEEP: Well, let's talk a little bit more about the Senate here. We mentioned Christopher Dodd - he's retiring. Democrats would seem to have a good chance at least to hold onto that seat, but there was another retirement in North Dakota where it's a bit of a redder state.

WILLIAMS: Absolutely. That's Byron Dorgan. Now, it's a state actually that has two Democratic senators. But right now, you've got a popular governor there, John Hoeven, and so if he decides to run, it's likely that he would win the seat - although it's possible that, again, their one congressman, Earl Pomeroy, if he runs that could make for a contest.

But that seat, as you said, is likely to go to the Republicans. Democrats in Connecticut, though, are probably, you know, not too sorry about Dodd going. Dodd's a great guy - don't mistake me - but the attorney general, Richard Blumenthal, there, is very popular and he may be a stronger Democratic candidate versus the Republican contenders - Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon.

INSKEEP: And let's just remember here: if Republicans, Juan, as you say, can just gain one seat or two or three, say, that that would give them a lot more power in the Senate. The Democrats seem to be vulnerable to lose some, but the Democrats have a chance to win some as well because Republicans have six senators retiring.

WILLIAMS: Absolutely. I mean, if you count the appointed replacement for Mel Martinez in Florida, there's six; then you got Jim Bunning in Kentucky, Judd Gregg in New Hampshire, George Voinovich in Ohio, Kit Bond in Missouri, Sam Brownback in Kansas - that's a lot. And, you know, only the Kansas seat is really safe.

So, Republicans are on the defensive too.

INSKEEP: And in a couple of seconds here, what about incumbents who are facing challenges?

WILLIAMS: Well, you start with the two Democrats - Gillibrand in New York; Michael Bennett in Colorado - so, at least, you know, possibly primary challenges. A lot going on there - Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania as well.

INSKEEP: Some of the calculations that may affect the results of the 2010 elections from NPR News analyst Juan Williams. Juan, thanks very much.

WILLIAMS: You're welcome, Steve.

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INSKEEP: This is NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.