U.S. Plan For Troop Exit Hinges On Iraq Elections
Iraqi supporters of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi's Al-Iraqiya alliance in Kirkuk - Iraqi supporters of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's Al-Iraqiya secular alliance campaign last week in the multi-ethnic Iraqi city of Kirkuk, about 160 miles north of Baghdad. (Marwan Ibrahim / AFP/Getty Images)
The national parliamentary elections Sunday in Iraq will not only decide who will run the country. The outcome could also affect the U.S. role in Iraq in the months ahead.
There have been several elections in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, each of them important in their own right. But this parliamentary vote comes at a particularly critical time, as the U.S. begins its phased exit of about 100,000 American forces from the country.
"I think what you're going to see this year, for good or for ill, is the emergence of a post-occupation Iraq," says Thomas Ricks, a former Pentagon correspondent for The Washington Post and now senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.
Ricks says he is worried about the outcome in this major test of Iraq's nascent democracy. The elections will provide "outlines of what it's going to be like after the Americans leave," he says.
Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says the elections also will determine whether the current U.S. goals for Iraq will be met. Those aims have been scaled back dramatically since the Bush administration ordered the 2003 invasion.
Among the goals to be met: whether the U.S. has succeeded in leaving behind a reasonably stable, functioning country, Ottaway says. The answer "is going to be determined by what happens in the weeks and months following the elections," she says.
Ottaway says it is unlikely the elections will produce a clear winner, which could mean protracted rounds of negotiations and jockeying among the political parties.
That's what happened after the last parliamentary election in 2006. Sectarian tensions were already beginning to peak then, and within a year Iraq devolved into civil war.
Robert Malley, Middle East program director for the International Crisis Group, says a similar situation this time could have an impact on President Obama's decision to start drawing down U.S. troops from Iraq in late spring.
"If you got back to a situation of chaos and uncontrolled violence in Iraq, would that lead the administration to say we've done our best, it's now up to the Iraqis, we're leaving?" Malley says. Or, if violence results it could also convince the administration that U.S. forces need to stay longer and act more forcefully, he says.
The Obama administration has pledged to withdraw most U.S. combat troops by the end of August and have the rest of American troops out by the end of next year.
Ricks says Obama has already had to abandon one of the major promises he made during his campaign for the presidency — to remove a brigade a month from the day he took office. Instead, he has maintained troop levels close to what they were under the Bush administration.
If violence spins out of control following the elections Sunday, Obama may once again rethink the U.S. military position in Iraq. Ricks says there is a split inside the U.S. government about the potential American response.
"Military officials [are] thinking it's a good idea to keep troops in Iraq for many more years. And civilian officials, especially political people, [are] saying no, this president was elected to get us out of Iraq and that's what we want to do," Ricks says.
If Obama decides to slow down the troop withdrawal or keep troops in Iraq beyond the end of 2011, he would have to renegotiate a status of forces agreement with the newly formed Iraqi government after the elections. Analysts say those negotiations would have to be done quietly and behind the scenes.
Ottaway says it is in the U.S.'s interests to stay involved in Iraq, in part, to counter the influence of neighbor Iran.
A new Iraqi government is likely to oppose — at least in public — a continuing U.S. military presence, Ottaway says, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.
"I can not envisage any government that has a likelihood of being formed in Iraq after the election that will totally turn against the United States. They know the U.S. is too important a player in the region," Ottaway says. "And they will maintain decent relations with the United States."
9(MDAyNzUwMDI2MDEyNTA3MTU5NzcyNTQyNA004))
RENEE MONTAGNE, host:
And whoever becomes Iraq's prime minister, the outcome of Sunday's vote could affect U.S. policy there in the months to come.
Here's NPR's Jackie Northam.
JACKIE NORTHAM: There have been a number of elections in Iraq since the U.S. invaded in 2003, each of them important in their own right. But the parliamentary vote on March 7th comes at a particularly critical time, as the U.S. begins its phased exit from the country, says Thomas Ricks, a senior fellow at the Center For a New American Security.
Mr. THOMAS RICKS (Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security): Well, I think what you're going to see this year, for good or for ill, is the emergence of a post-occupation Iraq, the outlines of what it's going to be like after the Americans leave.
NORTHAM: These elections are seen as a major test of Iraq's nascent democracy. Marina Ottaway with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says they will also determine whether the current U.S. goals for Iraq - scaled back dramatically from when the Bush administration first invaded the country - will be met.
Ms. MARINA OTTAWAY (Director of the Middle East program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace): Has the United States being successful in Iraq, indeed? Have we succeeded in leaving behind a reasonably stable, reasonably functioning country? The answers to that question is going to be determined by what happens in the weeks and months following the elections.
NORTHAM: Ottaway says it's unlikely the elections will produce a clear winner, which could mean protracted rounds of negotiations and jockeying among the political parties.
That's what happened after the last parliamentary election in 2006. Sectarian tensions were already beginning to peak then, and within a year, Iraq devolved into civil war.
Robert Malley with the International Crisis Group says a similar situation this time could have an impact on President Obama's decision to start drawing down U.S. troops in Iraq in late spring.
Mr. ROBERT MALLEY (Middle East program director, International Crisis Group): If you got back to a situation of chaos and of uncontrolled violence in Iraq, would that lead the administration to say we've done our best, it's now up to the Iraqis, we're leaving? Or, on the contrary, would it persuade the administration that it needs to stay a little bit longer, act a little bit more forcefully?
NORTHAM: The Obama administration has pledged to have all U.S. combat troops out of the country by the end of August, and the rest of American troops out by the end of next year.
But Tom Ricks says President Obama has already had to abandon one of the major promises he made during his campaign for the presidency: to remove a brigade a month from the day he took office. Instead, he has maintained troop levels close to what they were under the Bush administration.
If violence spins out of control following these elections, the president may once again rethink the U.S. military position in Iraq, says Ricks.
Mr. RICKS: I think there's a real split inside the U.S. government about this, with military officials thinking that it is a good idea to keep troops in Iraq for many more years, and civilian officials - especially the political people -saying no. This president was elected to get us out of Iraq, and that's what we want to do.
NORTHAM: If President Obama decides to slow down the troop withdrawal or keep troops in Iraq beyond the end of 2011, he would have to renegotiate a Status of Forces Agreement with a new government in Baghdad. Analysts say those negotiations would have to be done quietly and behind the scenes.
But Carnegie's Marina Ottaway says a new Iraqi government will likely oppose a continuing presence, at least in public. But that doesn't mean it can't happen.
Ms. OTTAWAY: I cannot envisage any government that has a likelihood of being formed in Iraq after the elections that will totally turn against the United States. They know that the U.S. is too important a player in the region. And they will maintain decent relations with the United States.
NORTHAM: Ottaway says it's in the U.S. interest to stay involved, in part to counter the influence of neighboring Iran.
Jackie Northam, NPR News, Washington.
(Soundbite of music)
MONTAGNE: You're listening to MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright National Public Radio.
