Iraq's Problems Weigh Heavily As Voters Decide

Jamie Tarabay
March 5, 2010, 11:46 AM

As Sunday's national parliamentary elections approach, Iraqis are preparing for another shift in their political destiny.

But much of what keeps the country fragmented will remain that way beyond election day. National reconciliation among Iraq's religious sects and ethnic groups and — more critically — the security situation remain unresolved.

Other nagging issues include relations between the central government in Baghdad and the other provinces, the status of the much-vied-for province of Kirkuk, and how to divide Iraq's precious oil resources and profits.

A string of bombings has disrupted Iraqi life in the days leading up to Sunday's balloting. But despite the violence, this election is taking place in a different political atmosphere from the one when Iraqis turned out for parliamentary elections in December 2005.

Then, with the U.S. invasion in 2003 still fresh and sectarian tensions high, the nation's Sunnis stayed home on election day. Their omission from the political process irritated old ethnic wounds. Violence by both Shiites and Sunnis accelerated, and by February 2006 the country had descended into civil war.

Since the U.S. toppled Saddam Hussein and sectarian warfare followed, hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions displaced. The upheaval and the resented presence of foreign interests — including the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey — prompted Iraqis to push back in last year's provincial elections. Voters rejected hard-line sectarian politicians and sent a clear message that they had had enough.

Candidates for Parliament in Sunday's election appear to have listened.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had emphasized national unity in Iraq long before the countdown to the vote. This time, he broke ties with Dawa, the Shiite, Iranian-influenced party that made him prime minister in 2006, and sought to band with other, more secular-minded politicians.

Tariq al-Hashemi, the country's Sunni vice president, no longer has his Iraqi Islamic Party. He now campaigns alongside former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, a Shiite.

Even followers of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr have put their quibbles aside. They have joined with the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, an Iranian-inspired organization, in a bid to win more votes.

But for all their talk of unity, hundreds of candidates — including two key Sunni politicans — were barred from running in the elections because of alleged ties to Saddam Hussein's outlawed Baath Party. Maliki defended the ban, saying candidates were "blatantly propagating Baath Party ideas."

Former U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker says the parliamentary commission that issued the candidate bans can be added to the vast list of challenges Iraq continues to face. "Iraq is at the very beginning of its story at the end of seven years" of U.S. involvement, he said.

Crocker also warns that Americans should not forget about Iraq now that things appear to be improving.

"There is a certain mind-set that Iraq was yesterday's war, we have brought it to a good place, it is up to the Iraqis," he said. "To say we're done here is going to dramatically reduce the chances for a satisfactory outcome to these challenges."

Crocker says he believes the U.S. will remain engaged politically, economically and diplomatically. "That's absolutely essential," he stressed.

And while suicide bombings continue to accompany the voting, U.S. military plans remain firm to reduce forces by roughly half — to 50,000 — by the fall. The Pentagon said earlier this week that it would take an "extraordinarily dire turn of events" in Iraq to warrant a change in plans.

Meanwhile, Iraqi and U.S. officials are hoping for the best — an orderly and fair election on Sunday that eventually produces a workable coalition government.

But given recent history, they should also prepare for the worst.

If it takes too long to confirm election results, or the losers refuse to accept defeat, Iraq could devolve into more violence. That may affect U.S. plans. And if the troops stay, that could mean renegotiating agreements between the United States and the new Iraqi government — a development that would be unwelcome in the political circles of both Washington and Baghdad.

Tarabay is a Washington-based national correspondent for NPR. She was NPR's Baghdad bureau chief from 2005-07.