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The first snow of the season is always tricky. For meteorologists, there's a slew of firsts related to snow to predict, from the first flakes, the first coating, then the first inch and finally, the first significant snowstorm.
All of these seasonal firsts get our attention and cause my anxiety to rise, because I don’t want to miss the forecast for any of it.
Today, we find a low pressure system off the coast moving north. This storm is forecast to keep its
precipitation shield mainly offshore, but the western fringe of rain will make it to Cape Cod and then
push west into Boston and then out to about Worcester.
I expect up to an inch of rain over Cape Cod, maybe even a bit more, but less and less rain will fall the further north and west you live. Once past Worcester, there won’t be very much at all.
This should be the end of the story. However, some of the models are indicating that as the cold air comes streaming into New England overnight, the rain will change to snow before ending. If this happens, it’s not a big deal, but since it’s potentially the first snowfall, it is a bigger deal.
The ground and roads are warm, so any snow won’t last. But if you were awake after 10 p.m and looked outside, you could see some wet, sloppy flakes. It’s not impossible that some flakes even coat the grass if precipitation lingers for an extra hour.
The map below shows the most likely areas for some snow.
Remember, these are models, and we are dealing with a very marginal situation. Therefore, the range of
this situation is everything from just rain to some places seeing the grass turn white overnight.
You can follow David’s weather updates on Twitter at @growingwisdom.
This article was originally published on November 22, 2015.
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