Forecast: Still Scarred From Last Winter? Our Warm November Could Mean Less Snow This Winter

While it was certainly cold last night — and it will average colder than normal today — November has so far been averaging on the much warmer side of the spectrum.

There’s an interesting piece of data, which I will be watching over the coming week. If you compare November’s average temperature to its corresponding winter's snowfall totals, something remarkable shows up: In no year when November’s temperatures have been in the top 10 warmest has Boston seen above average snowfall. As a matter of fact, snowfall averages during those periods were well under the 44 inch average and closer to 25 inches of snow.

This year, we are in the top 5 warmest Novembers so far. However, that placement is likely to fall over the next few days with the colder air, but could easily stay in the top 10 by the final day of the month.

When you add in the fact we are in an El Niño year, the odds become even more stacked against a very snowy winter. This doesn’t mean it won’t snow nor does it mean no big storms, but the odds are favoring a much different winter.

Another warm-up is also on the way over the next 48 hours, and temperatures will be above normal once again by Thanksgiving. It might be near 60 on Friday, which would be well above normal for the final week of November. This mild air will continue through the start of the weekend before it turns quite chilly late in the weekend and early next week.

Unless you are traveling to the West Coast over the next few days, the weather won’t be a factor. Wednesday night is a big night to head out and meet friends at local establishments. You can expect dry roads and a bright moon with cold temperatures.

Thursday, aside from all the travel to and from family, there are a lot of football games. Expect temperatures rising through the 40s during game time and then be in the lower 50s for the post-Thanksgiving feast dinner.

A cold front may bring some showers Friday night or early Saturday, then it’s a return to colder and dry weather as we head back to work Monday.

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high 40-43.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 25 to 32 in Boston.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high in the mid 40s. Calm wind.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high close to 60.

Saturday: Mild in the morning with a few showers. Then just cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

You can follow David’s weather updates on Twitter at @growingwisdom.

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David Epstein Meteorologist
David Epstein was WBUR's meteorologist.



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