Forecast: Milder Air Returns Later This Week

About 10 days ago some of the models were forecasting a big nor’easter for today across much of New England. The models were projecting a storm that looked like a big snow-maker over interior areas and the mountains that was also expected to bring heavy rain and winds to the coast.

But, as is often the case with models, the forecast changed within a few days.

There is a storm, but it's in the wrong location and not near this area. If the storm had come closer, we would be seeing beneficial rain. Part of the reason it’s so dry as we close out the final three weeks of the year is so many rain storms have been missing us all fall and now into the early part of winter.

Coastal winds and today's cloudy skies will keep temperatures seasonably cool, but the cold won't last. It's highly likely Boston will see near-record warmth this weekend for December. Temperatures in the 60s are a good bet, and the lows over the weekend might remain in the 40s or even 50s.

This incredible warmth is, in part, related to El Nino, which continues to remain strong off the coast of Peru. When El Nino gets this strong, it impacts the jet stream in such a way as to keep cold air from easily reaching the United States. This pattern is similar to December of 1983 when temperatures reached 70 twice in Boston during December.

Eventually, colder more seasonable weather returns in about a week, but the chances of a white Christmas are fading fast. Although, I wouldn't say it's impossible just yet.

You can follow David’s weather updates on Twitter at @growingwisdom.

Today: Cloudy, raw and cool. Highs in the lower 40s.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low around freezing.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

Thursday: Early shower, otherwise lots of clouds. Highs near 53.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 54.

Saturday: Saturday: Lots of sunshine. Highs in the 50s.