WBUR Poll: Warren Holds 'Quite Significant' 30-Point Lead

A new WBUR poll out Wednesday (topline results, crosstabs) finds Elizabeth Warren with over a 30-point lead as she runs for re-election to the U.S. Senate this year.

Fifty-three percent of voters surveyed say they have a favorable view of her.

The poll also found that most Massachusetts voters have never heard of the Republicans vying to run against her, meaning the candidates fighting it out in the Republican primary have their work cut out for them.

Seventy-two percent of those surveyed did not know of state Rep. Geoff Diehl, of Whitman. And 74 percent have never heard of former Mitt Romney aide Beth Lindstrom. Eighty-three percent do not know investment manager John Kingston. They are battling it out in the Republican primary.

"I think the main feature is really that people aren't paying a lot of attention to her Republican opponents, and that her leads remain quite significant even four months after we last polled this race," said Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the survey for WBUR.

If the election were today, Warren would easily win re-election. Only 20 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Diehl, 19 percent for Lindstrom, and 21 percent for Kingston. Depending on who the Republican candidate is, 7 to 9 percent say they would vote for independent Shiva Ayyadurai, an entrepreneur and MIT graduate who claims he invented email, in the general election. Warren would walk away with more than 50 percent of the vote in any match-up.

The poll finds 61 percent of women have a favorable view of Warren.

"I think she's done a great job," said Roberta Driscoll, of Ipswich. "Because she doesn't accept status quo, which I think too many politicians do."

But the poll reveals that Warren is vulnerable among three groups, and one of them is men. More men (46 percent) say they have an unfavorable view of Warren than men who have a favorable view (44 percent) of her.

"She's demoralizing this country," said Frederick Hallisey, of Weymouth. "She doesn't know what she's doing. She demoralizes the president, and she's a big cause of it, really. He's doing a great job, and I don't care what she says or nothing, she should be thrown out of the Senate."

Warren also has trouble connecting with voters with a high school education or less, as well as those making $150,000 a year or more. In both groups, Warren's unfavorables slightly outmatch her favorables.

Forty-four percent of voters with a high-school education or less have a favorable view of her, compared to 43 percent with a favorable view.

Fifty percent of people who make $150,000 a year or more have an unfavorable view of her, compared to 45 percent with a favorable view.

Among the higher-income group is Boston firefighter Shannon Blair, who takes issue with some of Warren's progressive positions.

"I'm much more 'get up and do it by yourself, for yourself, and for the small group of people that you care about around you,' so I'm not really a big social-net or social-justice type of person — much more of an independent person," said Blair.

But pollster Koczela puts these weaknesses of Warren's in context.

"Yeah, she's weaker among a couple groups, but I think the thing that stands out is that she's still winning among them," said Koczela.

If the election were today, the poll predicts she would beat Republican opponents even among men, people with a high-school education or less, and people who make $150,000 or more.

The poll surveyed 504 registered voters between this past Friday and Sunday. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.