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What we know about the midterm elections, from Colorado to Nevada

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A voting sign at East Boston High School polling station. (Robin Lubbock/WBUR)
A voting sign at East Boston High School polling station. (Robin Lubbock/WBUR)

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With the midterm elections just 8 days away, candidates are making their final pitches:

From Nevada, to Michigan and Colorado.

Today, On Point: A look at three states, and what they’re telling us about the mood of the country.

Guests

Natasha Korecki, senior national political reporter for NBC News. (@natashakorecki)

Jon Ralston, founder and editor of The Nevada Independent. (@RalstonReports)

Bente Birkeland, reporter at Colorado Public Radio and co-host of the politics podcast Purplish. (@BenteBirkeland)

Chad Livengood, politics editor at The Detroit News. (@ChadLivengood)

Transcript: Interview Highlights with Natasha Korecki

ANTHONY BROOKS: In just eight days, Americans will finish voting in midterm elections across the country. At stake, governorships of several states as well as who will run elections across the country. Among those competing for secretaries of state are election deniers. And if they win, they could have a lot to say about the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Also to be determined, of course, control of Congress.

Republicans are feeling the wind at their backs and will likely win control in the U.S. House, while the battle for the U.S. Senate feels more like a jump ball. This hour, we're going to zero in on three battleground states, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan. To kick things off, Natasha Korecki joins us. She's senior national political reporter at NBC News.

NATASHA KORECKI: Thanks for having me.

BROOKS: It's great to have you. I'd like to start with a really general question. In a moment, we're going to dove into those three states. But give us your sense of where races and some other key states stand. I'm thinking of the big states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona. What are you seeing out there in general?

KORECKI: Well, what we've been seeing over the last couple of weeks, of course, is this tightening across the country. You know, where we first thought this was going to be Republicans' time to lose. Then it shifted over the summer to Democrats. And then, you know, after Labor Day, we started seeing Republicans spending big money in states like Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, all the big battleground states we've been talking about throughout these midterms.

And ... the spending advantages have kind of seesawed in the last several weeks. Now we're seeing in some of these races, we're seeing Democrats pulling ahead with funding. And that includes in Wisconsin, which is, of course, near and dear to my heart, because I'm so close by. I've been there a lot. And, you know, Ron Johnson really spent heavily in September against Mandela Barnes. And Barnes didn't really have an answer for it. But we're really seeing Barnes come back here. And it's just some of that spending. ... They're able to trumpet their messages and they're starting to claw their way back.

BROOKS: Spending is key. I'm looking at a new poll right now from The New York Times and Siena College. This is a recent poll in Arizona, polls in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. So, four important states. And I'm struck by a really interesting sort of divergence in this poll. More people across three of the states, I'm reading now from the Times summary, said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their state.

So, we're seeing slight advantages in those four states for the Democrats, according to the polling, except in Nevada, which we're going to talk about, which seems to be a dead heat. But what do you make of that split between voters who say, yeah, we want Republicans to control the Senate, but we prefer the Democratic candidates?

KORECKI: Sure. Well, you know what? What you have is what's typical. The midterm election, which is the party that's in office, often gets blamed for the dynamics that are happening on the ground, which is the rising gas prices. You want to blame somebody at the grocery store when you're paying your grocery bill. Who are you going to blame? The party in power. However, when you are living in that state, you're able to judge more carefully. If that person's an incumbent, what have they done in your district? Have they visited your city, in your town recently? Are you better knowledgeable about what their accomplishments are?

And I think we're seeing a lot of that in these different states where, take Nevada, for instance, we're going to talk about first. But, you know, Catherine Cortez Masto, I mean, she is under the gun here. I mean, you can't get any closer than Nevada right now. But similar, you know, you have people saying, I want change. I want change. Well, is Cortez Masto doing a good job? You know, if you ask people on the ground, well, you know what, she's not doing a bad job. I'm kind of happy with it. So there is a little bit of that happening.

But at the same time, people are mad at the White House, so they want someone to blame. Sometimes people blame Biden, but they don't blame their local officials. And I think that also is reflective when you look at how in all these battleground states, if you look at how the Democratic candidates are doing, their favorables are much higher than the president's favorables, which is why we're not seeing Joe Biden on the trail right now.

BROOKS: On the other hand, we are seeing Barack Obama on the trail. And we're going to talk about this later in the hour. But I'd love to get your sort of quick take. If I have this right, did I understand you were in Michigan when during Obama's visit there? Do I have that right?

KORECKI: I was in Milwaukee. It was right after his Michigan, his Detroit visit that day. So he hit ... Georgia Friday, and then he went over to Detroit and Milwaukee. I mean, you know, there's been a lot of write ups about this the last couple of days. And you really can't get a better messenger right now. I mean, hey, Obama has nothing to lose, right? He's like loosey goosey, you know, freewheeling out there.

But he really hammered home a lot of messages that you could just feel it in the crowd. It was like this relief of, oh, somebody is hearing us and seeing us right now. And just talking to people afterwards, I think it was a refreshing ... take from the Democrats. I feel like a lot of people were saying we weren't hearing that from the people running in the state, weren't hearing this nationally until now with Obama.

And I think Obama after 14 years, 2008 was when he first ran for president. And he's really honed his skill. And he was able in Milwaukee in particular, he was just hammering Ron Johnson. And we heard him just lay into him in a way that I don't think we've really heard this election. And, you know, everybody was sort of like, right.

He just sort of distilled this whole thing in a couple of minutes. So he was the right messenger at the right moment. And, of course, the question is, how much does that ever actually move people to the polls? But at the very least, it's a reminder to people who are completely tuned out that there's an election coming up. And it's high stakes right now.

This program aired on October 31, 2022.

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