WBUR Senate Poll: Warren Leads Brown By 5

BOSTON — A WBUR poll of 507 likely Massachusetts voters (PDFs — topline, crosstabs) finds Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren leading Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Scott Brown, 45 percent to 40 percent. The survey has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

The WBUR poll, conducted Sept. 15-17 by the MassINC Polling Group, is the fourth released this week to find Warren making gains.

Issues Vs. Personality 

The poll finds an increasing number of likely voters — 39 percent — believe Warren “will stand up for regular people when in the Senate,” compared to just 30 percent when we polled back in February. Twenty-nine percent said the same thing of Brown, compared to 33 percent in February.

Click for the poll’s topline results (PDF).

Click for the poll’s topline results (PDF).

Warren is seen as the candidate who best “understands the needs of middle-class families.” Thirty-five percent of likely voters see her that way; 27 percent say the phrase best describes Brown. If the battle between Warren and Brown is one of issues rather than personality, Warren has the edge.

Warren has also made progress persuading voters that she agrees with them on key issues. Back in February, only 35 percent of likely voters felt that way — the same number who felt Brown agreed with them most. Now, 45 percent of likely voters see their views as more aligned with Warren’s, while 33 percent say they’re more in agreement with Brown.

The ferry Massachusetts brings commuters from all over the South Shore to Boston. On the 8:20 a.m. ferry from Hingham Tuesday, Howie Altos, of Cohasset, said he believes Warren best represents his views.

“Pretty much on every issue, from the economy to the environment, women’s health care, the economy particularly,” Altos said. “I think she’s trying to level the playing field. Brown’s trying to tip the scales with the rest of the Republican agenda.”

More likely voters say they like Brown better: 52 percent have a favorable opinion of him, while 48 percent have a favorable view of Warren.

Mary Ann Gray, of Hudson, identifies with Brown.

“I just think he’s a real good guy,” Gray said. “He came from nothing and he worked his way.”

Forty-four percent of likely voters polled say they feel Brown, who grew up in Wakefield, has deep roots in Massachusetts; only 13 percent say that about Warren, who moved to Cambridge to teach at Harvard Law School.

More likely voters also see Brown as running a more positive campaign, 35 percent, compared to Warren’s 21.

Winning Over Independent Voters

The poll finds Brown making more inroads among Democrats than Warren does among Republicans. In a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans three to one, it’s important for Brown to pull away a significant number of Democrats from Warren, and 15 percent of Democrats say they would vote for him.

Brown also has a 14-point lead among independent voters, like Peter Noonan, of Hull. He’s been working on the ferry Massachusetts for the last seven years.

“I’m an independent,” Noonan said. “I come from a solid Democratic family. I come from a blue-collar, vote-Democrat-ticket strictly [family], but the way things have changed politically in the last 20, 25 years, you really can’t vote a party line. I really believe you have to see which candidate is the best, and go with that.”

And right now, he’s leaning toward going with Brown.

“Elizabeth Warren talks big about being middle class, although she’s super wealthy and a Harvard teacher,” Noonan said. “Kind of leaves me feeling flat, you know?”

Noonan believes that Brown will win on the strength of his support among independent voters. And he believes many of those voters will make up their mind after the four televised debates between the candidates, the first of which is Thursday.

“I’m looking forward to the debate,” Noonan said. “I think they’re both going to be prepared and they’re both going to be well-spoken.”

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  • tiredAmerican1122

    Anyone else think this “unbiased news” station should stop getting tax payers $$.
    Tell me WBUR are you on Warrens payroll because you sure do sound like it.
     Stop funding progressive puplic radio NOW!

    • Cullenmac88

      what ever you say Dr. Geobbles

      • tiredAmerican1122

        Yea compare me to a nazi, is that the best you have? You Mr. Cullenmac are pathetic.

        • Vandermeer

          Dear tiredAmerican… you need to tune into Fox network where you will get infotainment and news with your slant. I’ll stay with NPR where I never tire of excellent reporting, varied topics and professional writing. I ♥ WBUR!!!
          A faithful supporter

          • tiredAmerican1122

            Sure go right and support your “UNBIASED” radio station as I have in the past, just don’t use my tax $$ to do it!

          • http://profile.yahoo.com/7PCBO7MOTRVVFJZC4AAAQAKOOU Denise

             Is WBUR biased because it reported the results of a survey which shows how voters are leaning and you’re not happy with those facts? C’mon, don’t shoot the messenger.

        • Frederick Royce Perez

          Maybe its the jingoistic manner you speak in , which is inseparable  from the propaganda of the German Reich Minister of Propaganda which decieved the poor thing , Eh ? 
          Tsk , try answering the questions raised by your misinformation next time .

      • jo

        A left winger playing the Nazi card. Wow, how intellectual. Spell his name right next time.

    • Rassputin45

       Yeah, we should be pumping more money into puplic edumacation instead!

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      You must be so tired , sigh . Too tired to think of Limbaugh poisoning the minds of our innocent youth fighting a war of profit for liars and cheats . Too bad for you …

  • Vandermeer

    Who is this Noonan… he needs to look at the actions of Elizabeth Warren. She has worked hard to prove that she is not afraid to fight the “corporate powers” who control this country. Look at their past actions. Brown voting the Republican line and Elizabeth Warren working for the people of America vs. big businesses and big banks.  

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/NG4UZC44SCTIJ3RGLUVMO645ZM Rudolf

    Its amazing that a Republican can win any statewide office in Massachusetts.

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      Why ever on earth would you say such nonsense ? May we ask Weld Weld Cellucci Swift Romney for their opinion sir Rudolf ?

  • Rayhof

    I have a friend whom I’ve known for 34 years.  He was the most passionate liberal that I’d
    ever known.  When the financial services
    industry was deregulated, he started a mutual fund company and sold it before
    the 2008 economic meltdown for $120 million.

    Recently, he invited me to a fund raiser that he was
    hosting for Scott Brown.  My friend now thinks
    of himself as a conservative.  Brown now neglects
    to mention in his re-election ads that he’s a Republican.  Some labels are harder to take on – no matter
    how truthful.

    I asked my friend why he was supporting Brown.  He told me that he thought Brown would be
    better for business than Elizabeth Warren.

    Considering that my friend now runs a
    business targeted at the financial industry
    and Warren is the primary person behind the creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – I understand his logic.

    My friend raised $30,000 for the Brown campaign and
    doubtless, should Brown get re-elected, he will do everything he can to gut the
    Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

    This November we can
    vote for Brown and the
    disproportionate advantages that he
    would support for the 1%, or we
    can vote for Warren who wants the
    financial services industry to clearly spell out what
    they’re selling so that another
    economic melt-down doesn’t occur. 

    We can vote
    for the image of Brown driving around in his pick-up
    truck, visiting fisherman and war veterans, portraying himself as “one of us” while
    voting over
    50% of the time with
    the Republicans and caucusing with Senate
    Minority Leader Mitch McConnell whose “number one goal
    remains the defeat of President Obama in 2012.”

    can forget that a politician’s job is to reach consensus through dialogue for the
    good of the people versus gaining the Republican Party the majority in the

    If this country is ever to live up to the high-minded ideas
    of its founders, we have to
    stop voting for people based on what they can do for us
    and our own special
    interests and start voting
    for the good of the nation.

    • FlushOblamer

      Hey dumazz Lizzy Warren is the 1%.

      • Frederick Royce Perez

        So were both of the Roosevelt boys .

    • bakerman1444

      Aren’t you required by law to identify youself as a campaign ad for Elizabeth Warren?

      • Frederick Royce Perez

        So this is the new comedy ? Drawing attention to the very ideas you wish to suppress ? Interesting .

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_NHOD5SZRHDR3XWEIQMOHSKHNVQ Hector G

    The country needs more individuals like Elizabeth Warren ,who are determine to cut in the bud  the ABUSE that goes on in the Senate ,yes, ABUSE, When senators and legislators have viable options in their hands to bring good bi- partisan solutions to the woes the country faces and do nothing,in my book that is ABUSE.When anything is ABUSED constantly ,it deteriorates.She has very good knowledge of the true meaning of ARITHMETIC, and can assist in bringing LIGHT to the CLOUDY & NEBULOUS debate that goes on in the Senate.

    • FlushOblamer

      And she writes crazy recipes she plagiarized from restaurants and claims they came from her tribe on the prarie.

    • bakerman1444

      Is this anything like the the Obama administration saying the Mohammed youtube video is an ABUSE of free speech?

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QUAYWERJ5BUI4QFICNDDVVZWD4 DefendOurConstitution

       Amen Hector.

  • Tangerine

    Hey Mr. Noonan: Ugh, I can’t even find the words.  Maybe these: Scott Brown is a giant phony laughing at you with his Wall Street owners.  Open your eyes.

    • FlushOblamer

      Hey Tangerine. Ugh I cant even find the words. Maybe these: Lizzy the liar is 100% phoney including her deceitful way of applying to Harvard as a minority. If she lies on that then she will lie on anything. She is laughing at you with her 5 million dollar home owners in her neighboorhood.

      • Frederick Royce Perez

        Except your wrong , tsk . Reading is hard work and for sins committed at the entry level seek forgiveness . 

        • bakerman1444

          “Except your wrong , tsk.”

          How does such a pedantic twerp not know the difference between “your” and “you’re” when posting such drivel? 

  • Guest

    Try reading the party platforms. My gosh, that is the root of any politician’s stance. No wonder why this country is in the shape that it finds itself.

  • http://twitter.com/alanstern2 alan stern

    Warren reminds me of the Red Sox.  They both suck.

  • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

    If Brown is leading with Indies and making inroads with Democrats, and getting strong GOP support, how could Elizabeth Warren be ahead by five?  Something is wrong.  While there are a lot of Democrats there, most voters in Mass. identify as indies.  

    • goldwater89

      Because all of these polls oversample Democrats.

      Democrats: 36%
      Republicans: 12%
      Independents: 52%

      • Frederick Royce Perez

        The trouble with conservatism is that you eventually run out of patience for insufferable fools .

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QUAYWERJ5BUI4QFICNDDVVZWD4 DefendOurConstitution

       If MA Democrats are 36% of voters, Republicans are 12% of voters and un-enrolled are the rest, how is that oversampling Democrats?

      • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

        Those percentages are not (Democrats are far more common in Massachusetts).  It just seemed odd for Brown to lead with unenrolled voters and still be behind.  Of course, now Brown is ahead again +4 which makes more sense:  http://www.wbur.org/2012/10/09/brown-leads-warren-poll

  • Don_B1

    Even if you like Scott Brown’s “folksiness” which is attractive, and think he will vote against his Party on issues in a way that will favor you, there is ONE VOTE, to be made by the elected Senator from Massachusetts, that will work for or against every citizen of this country: The vote for the Party to control the Senate.

    If that vote is Brown’s and he will vote for the Republican Party, it could give the Republicans Senate control to defund much or all of Obama’s healthcare, clean energy and bank regulation through the process of reconciliation, all in one huge “mother-of-all” bills.

    Sure, a reelected Obama could veto it, and bring the government to a halt as Clinton did, but should Romney be President, that would be the end of those advances in protections against the downsides of life that the last three years have seen.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_HZPDJ6YYI4AGL62Z5DNTF5OA6Q Chas

    This poll is complete nonsense.  WBUR cannot possibly be trusted on something like this.

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      Get out more , the poll is the poll . “Cannot possibly” is the cry of the believers who invested in the Titanic .

  • thwartfascism

    If these Massholes elect’m squaw Warren, it proves they think with forked brain.

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Russell-Davis/1098494552 Russell Davis

       No, that they don’t and can’t think at all.  But then they’re Dems, still the party of chauvinist slavery keeping their niggers on the plantation, controlling and buying their votes, and feminist chauvinism and sodomy, mentally ill all the way, so what chance did they have?  And of course as we saw with their vile treatment of Akin, the GOP is making every effort to compete with their level of perfidy.  There are always stellar exceptions like Sen Rubio & Gov Jindal, and far fewer Dems, but largely both parties are corrupt dinosaurs that are long overdue to be tossed in history’s dustbin with the rest of the refuse of failed civilizations.  God save us.

      • Frederick Royce Perez

        Dear Mr Davis :
        The list of phobias you have adopted must make a cozy little nest of hate and rancour . Aside from the drift from the outside perimeter of rational you go full bore inrto support for the best examples of the weakest thinking in America . Proudly claiming your affinity with the leaders of  such proven qualities of misguided and insupportable quackery as provided by Atkins , while denigrating in the guise of disdain the great Americans who have suffered most , you sir are surely the example that is pointed to as beneath contempt . 
        Please seek help .

  • dixhandley

    Mass. is nothing but a commie state. This proves it. Aholes!!!

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      Gee you are so convincing . One may easily understand how one can believe in such a well developed brand of hog polishing wash .

  • Native_New_Yorker

    Egad, just how DUMB are the people in MA??????   This woman is a proven liar and fraud, yet they want to elect her?  Unbelievable.

    • http://www.facebook.com/kevhurls Kevin Hurley

      And how might you know, you stupid Yankee-lover?

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      You realize that regardless of how you feel that there are real consequences for insupportable statements ? 
      Now I doubt that the honor you have besmirched would have the time to deal with such an obvious waste of time (yourself) , but it must dawn upon you that anyone can see what a crippling state of affairs exists in your mind .
      Thank you …

      • lyndaaquarius

        culture of intimidation.

  • lyndaaquarius

    such a sad state of affairs if a corrupt,dishonorable woman is elected Senator. What do those foolish people think she’ll deliver to them? I get it that the welfare class wants more welfare, but those in the middle class [soon to be lower middle class] need to study. They need to understand the objectives of the Frankfurt School and how those schemes are affecting their futures today.  They need to come to see how they’ve been used.

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      You say she is corrupt and dishonorable , but you provide no inkling of how you are able to afford to slander and libel (I read it aloud) without fear of financial , or other types of ruin . 
      Is The Frankfort School in America ? 
      If not , are you familiar with the curiculum , or of the thrust of academic energies ?
      From Wikipedia 
      “The school’s main figures sought to learn from and synthesize the works of such varied thinkers as Kant, Hegel, Marx, Freud, Weber and Lukács.”
      I particularly like how you explain human thought , how you get it . I just have one itty bitty complaint , umm , examples ? 
      Thank you …

      • lyndaaquarius

        Now that the IRS scandal is steadily unfolding, your “without fear of financial or other types of ruin” takes on a whole new understanding and I am properly frightened. No more slanderous or libelous comments from me. But, you might want to read up on Lukacs.

        • FRPSR

          Thank you .

  • equal_rights_for_all1

    Indoctrination in the schools is a curious thing. The teachers are duped into selling communist doctrine without even knowing it. Those who major in education, in  general, are not the ones with  the highest SAT scores.
    Government education yields uninformed, but highly indoctrinated voters. They think diversity of thought is dreadful(can’t have any conservative views), as long as there is the proper ration of skin tones.

    • Frederick Royce Perez

      You know what makes me curious ? I bet you do ! I am just the smallest bit curious about where you developed such muscular ideas and what are you basing such dramatic notions upon . 
      I’ll tell you why ! 
      Because the internal logic of your “thesis” is self contradictory ! 
      The qualifications you allow dismiss the validity of previous ideas ! 
      See Jonah Goldberg* for how to make insupportable claims followed by qualifications . 
      See you !

      *For pure and simple idiocy he caint be beat .

    • Don_B1

      The students with the highest SAT scores mostly go into other vocations paying more. A science teacher is accepting at least a 25% lower pay scale, so those high SAT students going into teaching are dedicated people who genuinely like teaching. There just aren’t enough of them, which is understandable.

      In many parts of the country (mostly, but not uniformly or only, Red States, I believe) many science teachers do not have any science training and skip parts of the curriculum, such as evolution, because they are easily intimidated. And these types of teachers are “indoctrinating” children in “liberal” ideas? I don’t think so. Those with lower SAT scores are less likely to “go against” the bullying of radical social and economic conservatives.

  • Frederick Royce Perez

    You do us honor sir thwart . The casting of such a lofty eye upon us unworthies in Massachusetts , an honor . Just one little thought what you refer to rather disparagingly as the land which obviously is the heart and soul of America , brands you as a hostile foreigner . Would you do us the favor of telling us where you bristle from ? Then while you are at it support your wild claims , just for the fun of it .
    Thank you …

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000582357191 Dee Stonewall

    You go, Elizabeth.  You’ve got my vote.  

  • Guest

    $350,000 salary and is an indian?  And she’s working for the working class?

    • Go Warren!

      I guess these are questions, so …
      – Yes, she came from a poor family but was gifted with incredible intelligence and a heckuva work ethic which led to a stellar career ending with an impressive salary.  Most people would call that the American Dream.– Yes, she has Native American heritage.  So does my mom, who is also blonde.  You can’t possibly know a person’s heritage by looking at them. (Thank you Miss Clairol.)– Yes, she’s spent a career fighting for the working class.  It’s been absolutely consistent from her earliest work. Hope that clears things up.

  • http://twitter.com/albyelks alby

    she’s worth over $15 million,and makes almost a million a yr.and she got the jobs by lying about being a minority.she won’t show her resume,because it would admit she is LYING AGAIN. AND BY THE WAY BROWN IS AHEAD BY 6 POINTS

    • http://evilbloggerlady.blogspot.com/ Evi L. Bloggerlady

      She also tried to kill a local electric coop in favor of some big dirty environmentally unfriendly utility company:  http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/elizabeth-warren-represented-large-utility-seeking-to-liquidate-rural-electric-cooperative/

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