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Markey Leads Gomez In New Poll

Gabriel Gomez, left, and U.S. Rep. Ed Markey (WBUR file photos)

Gabriel Gomez, left, and U.S. Rep. Ed Markey (WBUR file photos)

BOSTON — A new poll commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters gives U.S. Rep. Ed Markey a 48-41 lead over former Navy SEAL Gabriel Gomez in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate race.

The survey is the third to suggest that Democrat Markey holds a small lead over his Republican opponent.

A fourth poll, released by Suffolk University/WHDH-TV last week, gave Markey a much larger lead — 52 to 35 percent.

The League of Conservation Voters, an environmental advocacy group that is supporting Markey, tapped Democratic-affiliated Public Policy Polling (PPP) to conduct the automated survey May 13-15.

The poll is PPP’s second in the race. Its first gave Markey a smaller edge: 44-40.

Markey’s wider lead in the new PPP survey is rooted in his improved standing with Democrats.

In the first PPP poll, he had a 68-21 edge among Democrats. The new survey gives him a 77-12 lead — a swing of 18 points.

The gain, the pollster wrote in a memorandum, suggests Markey may be consolidating support among voters who cast ballots for his opponent in the Democratic primary, U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch.

But Markey’s team, no doubt, wants to build an even larger margin among party regulars. Exit polls show Elizabeth Warren won 89 percent of Democrats last fall when she ousted Republican U.S. Sen. Scott Brown.

Winning Democrats in lopsided fashion is particularly important as long as Gomez continues to make gains among independent voters.

The GOP candidate’s margin among independents expanded from 47-31 in the last PPP survey to 56-33 in the new poll.

But if the gain is heartening for the Gomez camp, the Republican will probably have to do even better among independents if he’s to pull off the upset.

Brown won independents 65-34 when he beat Democrat Martha Coakley in the 2010 U.S. Senate special election, according to a post-election survey commissioned by The Washington Post.

The new PPP survey suggests Gomez’s fresh-faced appeal, coming out of the primaries, may be receding.

The first PPP poll showed that 41 percent of likely voters had a favorable view of the Republican, compared to 27 percent who had an unfavorable opinion. That 14-point margin shrinks to eight points in the new survey.

Democrats, in particular, have soured on Gomez. A 33-32 favorability edge in the first poll has morphed into a 20-52 disadvantage — suggesting a more limited cross-over appeal.

The new PPP survey shows Markey expanding his lead with non-white voters. He led Gomez 47-34 in the firm’s first poll. The margin stands at 55-15 in the new survey.

But again, Markey will be looking to build his lead with a traditionally Democratic constituency. Warren won black voters 86-14 in her clash with Brown last fall, according to exit polls.

A pre-election survey from Impremedia/Latino Decisions suggest Warren had a wide lead among Latinos, too.

Gomez, the Spanish-speaking son of Colombian immigrants, is looking to make inroads among Latino voters.

But the Republican will also need to fare better among white voters. The new PPP survey gives Markey a 47-46 lead with whites.

Gomez has not yet built an advantage among male voters, who often gravitate to more conservative candidates — moving from a slight edge in the last PPP poll to a tie in the new survey.

Markey maintained a solid margin among women voters in the new survey: 49-37.

The poll of 880 likely voters has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

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  • jhon perez

    Independents are overrated. They are closet Republicans ashamed of admitting they are Republicans.

    • Infidel72

      Funny.. The only shred of truth in your statement stems from the slide of the establishment Republicans towards Democrat-lite.

      • GianniP

        Dude, it no longer matters. The country is already bankrupt and living (temporarily) on credit fumes. In a few years, the “letters” will no longer matter, and besides they are both to blame, and we even more so, because we believed in fairy tales. .

    • GianniP

      The only intelligent voters are conservatives, regardless of which party they affiliate with.

      • Vandermeer

        Partisan… generalist… maybe uninformed?

        • GianniP

          Sometimes, the truth hurts. Case in point:

          Conservatives know more about politics and political history than Democrats.

          On eight of 13 questions about politics, Republicans outscored Democrats by an average of 18 percentage points, according to a new Pew survey titled “Partisan Differences in Knowledge.”

          The Pew survey adds to a wave of surveys and studies showing that GOP-sympathizers are better informed, more intellectually consistent,more open-minded, more empathetic and more receptive to criticism than
          their fellow Americans who support the Democratic Party.

          Low information voters are the lifeblood of the Democratic Party. Everybody knows that, except you, Vandermeer.

          Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/22/science-say-gop-voters-better-informed-open-minded/#ixzz2VRdYO2ot

          • Vandermeer

            Then why are there more college educated liberals? Gianni, I am not a “dude” and “me thinks you protest too much”.

          • GianniP

            ” college educated liberals?”
            >>> If you don’t the answer to THAT question, then you don’t know much (as I already suspect)

  • GianniP

    With Markey’s liberal voting record, it’s no wonder Obama is fighting so hard to send him to the Senate. Over four decades in Congress, Ed Markey has voted to raise taxes 271 times and the debt ceiling 31 times. But then, Mass is a mass of drain-bread voters and they should become a part of Canada, where they fit in better.

    • Vandermeer

      We need to raise taxes for many needed services… that’s what governement is for in many cases. You can call him liberal… I would say he supports working Americans, healthcare reforms, students, and the Enviroment.
      Don’t tell me– you love Paul Ryan?

      • GianniP

        Dude, you don’t grasp it. Whether you like Markey or I like Ryan is rapidly becoming irrelevant. The charade is nearing eclipse and with it, all our crazy notions of partisanship.

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