Why The Khazei Campaign Thinks It Can Win

Shaun Kelleher, field director for the Alan Khazei campaign, just sent out a memo explaining how Khazei can win this race.

The campaign is counting on its door-to-door and phone contact to persuade people who are still trying to make up their minds. It is targeting the voters most likely to vote. The campaign figures this out based on statistical models and what voters tell canvassers at the door and on the phone.

Kelleher said Khazei has seen support among these voters grow. The campaign is finding that a majority of those who were undecided are breaking Khazei's way.

Kelleher says late-breaking voters are going for Khazei at a faster rate than for his three opponents. It says between three weeks ago and the eve of the primary, Khazei's support among these voters has jumped by 11.5 percent, Coakley's by 3.3 percent, Capuano's by 2.1 percent and Pagliuca's by less than 1 percent.

Kelleher says more than a third of likely voters remain undecided.

Kelleher said since The Boston Globe endorsed Khazei over Thanksgiving weekend, the campaign has had a flood of volunteers. He said 845 new volunteers have signed up, bringing the total number of volunteers to 2,043.

Kelleher said the campaign has knocked on 56,052 doors in the last month.

Now, that does not mean that it has contacted 56,052 likely voters. I went around with one canvasser over Thanksgiving weekend, and I would say that maybe a fourth of the bells rung answered.

The Khazei campaign is counting on a low turnout, because it is confident that it can get its supporters out to the polls.

The Stephen Pagliuca campaign is counting on a high turnout, and Attorney General Martha Coakley has said she is hoping for a high turnout.