Forecast: A Taste Of Spring Before Some Snow

Here we go into the second half of February and this month has already seen temperatures just over two degrees above average. There's a chance that if the mild weather continues through the end of the month, the entire meteorological winter period from December through the end of February will have average temperatures above normal. That's pretty amazing when you consider how cold it was at the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.

The chart above also illustrates that averages are just a compilation of extremes, and this is especially true here in New England.

This time of year there's a lot of changes going on outside all relating to the increase in light. Some of the very earliest flowering shrubs, like witch hazel plants, are blooming. This will only continue over the next couple of weeks.

All of this is early for spring bloom, but not unprecedented. The sap has started to run across northern New England this week, about the same time it did last year and yes — that is early, too.

But despite these signs, this weather we're experiencing could turn out to be a false spring. The computer models we use to help guide our forecasts are definitely all over the place with regard to what might happen Saturday night and early Sunday. It appears likely there will be a light to moderate snowfall across parts of southern New England, but I'm still not sure yet about where the snow will fall.

The most likely spots would be south of the Mass. Pike and along the coastline. This chance of snow comes sandwiched between abnormally mild air, so even if we do see accumulating snow early Sunday, it will likely melt in the first few days next week. Tuesday or Wednesday could see temperatures in the 60s.

The weather system which brings the potential snow is still way out in California, 3,000 miles away. The computer guidance I use to to make forecasts will become sharper focused later today, but at least some snow is quite likely.

You can follow my updates here and on Twitter @growingwisdom.

Thursday: A lot of clouds, little risk of any showers. Mild. Highs 48-55.

Thursday Night: A few showers, very mild. Lows 41-46.

Friday: Clouds, mild. Maybe a morning shower or two. Highs 50-55.

Saturday: Colder with sunshine, then late day clouds. Highs in the mid-30s.

Sunday: Early snow, then sunshine. Highs 38-44.

Monday: Milder with sunshine, but some showers late. Highs 39-45.