WBUR

WBUR Poll: Warren Leads Brown By 5

BOSTON — A WBUR poll of 516 likely Massachusetts voters (PDFs — topline, crosstabs) finds Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren leading Republican U.S. Sen Scott Brown, 48 percent to 43 percent.

Click for the poll’s topline results (PDF).

Click for the poll’s topline results (PDF).

The poll, conducted Oct. 21-22 by the MassINC Polling Group, has a 4.4 percent margin of error.

‘Meaningful Change’

The last time pollster Steve Koczela surveyed voters for WBUR earlier this month, he found Brown ahead by four points.

“The last poll that we did happened to coincide with would have to be described as the worst week of the entire campaign for Democrats,” Koczela said. “It was right after the first presidential debate, where President Obama gave what would have to be described as a pretty lackluster performance.

“When you go from a four-point lead for one candidate to a five-point lead for another candidate, it is a meaningful change, definitely,” Koczela said.

Women’s Vote

Sen. Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren (AP)

Sen. Scott Brown, Elizabeth Warren (AP)

That previous poll was also conducted before the latest debate between Brown and Warren. In that debate, Warren pointed out that Brown has voted against equal pay for women.

“He’s gone to Washington and he’s had some good votes, but he’s had exactly one chance to vote for equal pay for equal work, and he voted no,” Warren said at that Springfield debate.

Brown actually voted twice against a Democratic proposal that would have put the burden on employers to show why women should be paid less than men. Brown, along with other Republican moderates, such as Maine’s Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, voted against the measure because he believed it would cost jobs.

Warren’s line of attack seems to be working. In our latest poll, she now has a 13 percentage point lead among women.

Earlier WBUR Senate Poll Results: 

Complete Coverage:

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  • rickterp

    Nice to see Warren with momentum, but I still wonder about that prior poll, taken over Columbus Day weekend. It’s looking more and more that the previous poll was a clear outlier with a sample skewed by the holiday weekend. This new poll reverts back to the mean.

  • Michael Hachey

    Any analysis that compares this poll to the previous WBUR/MassInc. poll is faulty, since the previous WBUR poll was an obvious outlier. Check out Nate Silver’s blog at fivethirtyeight.com and look at the polls he’s collected in this race; the WBUR poll from Oct. 10 is a lone block of red in a sea of blue. The real story here is that Warren has been maintaining a narrow but significant lead for weeks, not that there has been a sudden reversal.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QUAYWERJ5BUI4QFICNDDVVZWD4 DefendOurConstitution

    More bad news for Senator Brown.  Not only is Warren winning among women by 13% (totally expected as she would obviously do better among women after 2 years of the Republican War on Women – TM) , but Brown is only winning among men by 2% (a far cry of the 19% he beat Coakley among men).  Even among men, Brown is only winning among the men under age 50 – and even there it is only by 5%.  In the end the Fehrstrom strategy of avoiding issues and the voting record seemed to work for a long time, but once the “liberal” media looked into those the race unraveled for Brown.

  • http://jayfulton.myopenid.com/ John

    There are two trends hurting Scott Brown right now; 1 – his staff, or supporters, have been stealing political signs accross the state, reported in multiple local papers, 2 – widespread publicity about the compounding pharmacy that supported his ideas on deregulation.   The first item as a nuisance, but the second reminded us all that some deregulation is dangerous, and dangerous deregulation actually kills us. 

  • TJohn76051

    It has also been revealed that Brown is not a Veteran and he transferred out of the MASS ARMY National Guard  into a cushy desk job at the Pentagon as a lawyer,  thus sidestepping any potential callup of his rank into a combat unit in MASS. He prances around as if he’s a veteran, but he never put in the time to become one. His self-described “soldiering” for a week in Afghanistan was as a tourist. not a field trooper.Folks see through this kind of narcissitic self engrandizement.

    tom

    • Sinclair2

      Be careful with your criticism.  Scott Brown IS a veteran.  A person must spend 180 days on active duty in order to reach veteran status (trust me, I’m a veteran).  I’m not a fan of Brown and I don’t intend to vote for him.  As a U.S. senator there is little to no chance of his ever being called up to active duty regardlesss of where he reports for weekend drills.

      Also, members of the Guard and Reserve commonly transfer to other duty locations based on their geographic employment.  If your going to critisize Brown, do it with credibility.   

    • Bdguzowski

      Did someone drop you on your head when you were little ???

  • John_of_Medford28

    Apparently, the memo didn’t go out today.  Where are all the vociferous Senator Brown supporters that cluttered this board when WBUR’s previous poll earlier this month showed the Senator leading by three?

    I continue to think that something is not quite right with polling this election season.  I’m not buying the current media du jour meme of a split between the popular vote and the electoral college.  I suspect that whoever is the winner in the Presidential race, will win both the popular vote and the electoral college, and by a larger margin that polls currently indicate.

    So don’t take anything for granted and get out and vote for the candidates of your choice.

  • Cantbserious2

    Not from Mass, don’t really follow ur politics but I cannot, for the life of me, understand why anyone would vote for Warren. I am sure some folks will differ with enthusiasm, but this lady is a complete dud. She is not going to work across the aisle with the GOP, she represents “same old same old” in Mass. governance, and she has NO RECORD to run on.  The comments re: Brown in this section are truly unbelieveable: he’s not really a veteran (???!!!), he voted against an equal pay for women bill..once, he favors limited deregulatiosn of pharmaceutical companies. Seriously?

    • TP

       Being from Massachusetts, I feel it is Scott Brown who is the dud. When pressed on serious issues he usually votes with his party,i.e., Republicans. He is a veteran and should be honored for that. However, he did vote against equal pay. Seriously. I can’t understand why you would support Mr. Brown.

    • Sinclair2

      We have a choice between a former male model and part-time real estate lawyer (Brown) and a highly respected, nationally known Harvard Law professor with a long list of achievements, and who has worked as an advisor to the president of the United States.  We think that we’ll make an intelligent choice as to whom our next lawmaker in the Senate should be.  For me, choosing Elizabeth Warren does not require a decision tree.

    • Independent

      Being from MA, I cannot understand the attraction to Warren.  You may not agree with all of Scott Brown’s positions but he reads and understands what he is voting on and can defend his votes.  He will think for himself.  Warren will only bring the same rhetoric and devisiveness that Obama and Reed have brought.  If you want someone who will vote as told go with Warren, it you want integrity go with Brown.

      • John_of_Medford28

        If Senator Brown is reelected, the Republicans gain control of the US Senate, and Mitt Romney elected President, I highly suspect he will be doing much less “thinking for himself” and more toeing the Republican party line as Medicare and Social Security is dismantled and voting for conservative Supreme Court Justices who in turn will strike down Roe v. Wade. 

        And regarding “the same rhetoric and divisiviness” I think that can said of most politicians in Washington.

        When the US Chamber of Commerce and Mayor Bloomberg of NY make laughable statements as part of their Brown endorsements, I suspect something must be right about voting Elizabeth Warren to the US Senate.

        • WMass_resident

          Based on what we’ve experienced over the last 4 years, would Republican contol of the Senate be a bad thing?  With Harry Reid as the Majority Leader, the Senate hasn’t done their job – they have refused to properly represent the people who have put them there.  For example, they have not brought a budget to the floor (other than the one the President submitted which received zero votes).  In the House, at least bills have been brought to the floor, debated, voted on, and forwarded to the Senate to die.
          So, with all the Democratic controlled Senate has failed to do, would a Republican controlled Senate be such a bad change?

      • http://ifthethunderdontgetya.blogspot.com/ ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©

         Got to laugh at people who call themselves “Independent” and then parrot nonsense from FOX News.

        No party has ever obstructed like the GOP has since the election of 2008.   Often times, they’ve filibustered bills that were based on their own proposals, like the American Jobs Act.

        The GOP has attempted to sabotage the American economy for their own partisan benefit.

        FOR SHAME!
        ~

  • Birddog

    Before you vote, please consider who you want voting for the next Supreme Court Justice.  Someone whose party has avowed that they will seek to overturn Roe v. Wade at the earliest opportunity or someone who has made it clear from the very beginning that they would ALWAYS support a women’s right to chose….
    Its as simple as that….

    Birddog

    • J__o__h__n

      Brown himself named Scalia as his model justice.

    • CSense

      You mean….a woman’s right to choose murder, correct? Be sure to correctly finish your sentence.  I know you believe it’s a woman’s right to choose, but in reality it’s the snuffing out of a human life.  The good news about abortion is eventually Democrats will abort themselves out of existence. Think of the millions of little mind numb robots who could have been taxpayers to support the nanny state that liberals have eliminated before they could take a breath!  Roe v Wade will never be overturned but it is a good rallying cry for the left!

  • Erdama

    Cantbserious2,

    Cantbserious:

    You begin your comment by saying you don’t follow MA politics and are not from MA. How then can you formulate an opinion on Elizabeth Warren? We take pride in MA in being an informed electorate. Our last federal election resulted in voters rejecting several Tea Party extremists, despite the fact that millions of dollars were pumped into the state on behalf of them. Being among the top states in the country in public education, medical care, income and job opportunities and leading the way in equality for all of our citizens, we kind of like the “same old, same old” that is here in MA and elect the people we feel will keep us that way. And before you resort to the “Taxachusetts” myth, we rate 17 th of the 50 states in taxation. I attribute most of our success to the fact that we have never had enough obstructionists to stand in the way of moving forward.

  • Magik13

    Good. Brown has a lot of stupid unconscious people fooled. Brown has not accomplished a single thing since being elected to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. Elizabeth Warren has been fighting for people her whole life and has held the banks accountable. She has proven experience. Brown needs to go back to modeling for x rated magazines. 

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