Trump, Haley and the Mass GOP's future is on the primary ballot

The Super Tuesday primary is next week, and with it comes a moment for Massachusetts Republicans, who are divided between die-hard supporters of Donald Trump and those who believe Nikki Haley has a chance to beat him here.

The former president essentially now owns the Republican Party. He moved a big step closer to clinching the Republican presidential nomination on Saturday, when he won the primary in South Carolina, home to his rival, Haley, a former governor of the state.

Trump is the dominant force among the Massachusetts GOP, too. But Jennifer Nassour, the former chair of the Massachusetts GOP, who is heading up Haley’s campaign in the Bay State, insists the fight for the nomination is not over, and that the state's Republicans will have something to say about it.

"This isn't Trump's party," Nassour said. "This is the Republican Party of Massachusetts," adding that a healthy democracy requires robust political opposition and debate.

Haley has vowed to stay in the race, despite losing in her home state and three other nominating contests, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Her prospects in Massachusetts look less than hopeful: according to a recent Suffolk University poll, Trump leads by 17 points among likely Republican primary voters in Massachusetts.

"What I'm hearing is overwhelming support for President Trump," said Tom Hodgson, the former sheriff of Bristol County, who is chairing the Trump campaign in Massachusetts.

But beyond the state's small Republican Party, Trump is deeply unpopular in Massachusetts; in the last two general elections, he lost the state to Hilary Clinton and Joe Biden by two-to-one margins. Meanwhile, he faces deep legal challenges, including 91 criminal indictments across four federal and state cases. Earlier this month, a New York judge ordered him to pay penalties totaling $450 million for legal fraud.

Nassour argued all this legal chaos hardly sets Trump up for victory in November.

"Donald Trump is running a campaign from a courtroom in 2024," she said, noting that Trump is still a long way from the 1,215 delegates needed to win the nomination.

Even if Trump wins in Massachusetts next Tuesday, Haley could still do well enough to win delegates and slow Trump's march toward the nomination, according to Amy Carnevale, Chair of the state GOP.

"If Donald Trump is kept to under 50% of the electoral vote, then our delegates will be awarded on a proportional basis," Carnevale said

There's another way Massachusetts could help Haley: along with most of the other 14 Super Tuesday states, Massachusetts allows unaffiliated voters — the state's largest block of voters—to participate in its primary. That offers Haley a chance to appeal to Republican-leaning independents who oppose Trump or who've grown tired of the chaos surrounding the former president.

"Haley is fashioning herself as a more moderate option," said Tatishe Nteta, a political scientist and director of the U-Mass poll. "So, that's why I think she's in."

Nteta added that given Trump's legal challenges, which could have him confined to a courtroom for much of the spring, "anything can happen" before next summer, when delegates convene at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee to select their presidential nominee.

As Haley fights a rear-guard action, she's becoming increasingly blunt in her criticism of Trump, calling him "toxic,” "unhinged," and a drag on the party's chances of winning in November, while accusing many Republicans of surrendering to him.

"They know what a disaster he's been and will continue to be for our party," she said last week in South Carolina, as she vowed to stay in the race, regardless of the outcome of the primary in her home state.

"They're just too afraid to say it out loud," she said, adding that she feels no need to "kiss the ring."

The choice in the Massachusetts Republican primary between Trump and Haley mirrors the divide in the state's own GOP: on one side are people like Hodgson, who embrace Trump and everything he stands for.

"He has a proven record from his first term in office," Hodgson said.

On the other side are people like Nassour, an old-style moderate Republican in the mold of Charlie Baker, William Weld and Mitt Romney, who want to pull the party back from its allegiance to Trump.

“We don't anoint kings. We don't have coronations here," Nassour said, downplaying the view of Trump's backers that he is already the presumptive nominee. "He's not," she said.

But he's getting closer, even as some Massachusetts Republicans hope to slow his progress next week.