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Forecast: Early Downpours Possible, Heavy Rain Through Today

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Heavy rain is expected to fall across areas of New England, and depending on where you are, there could be downpours during your morning commute. The heaviest rain will fall this morning before tapering off later in the evening.

Generally 1 to 2 inches of rain will fall, but some areas, especially south and east of the Boston to Providence line will see less rain. This is much less rain than the up to 5 inches that was forecast earlier for today; most of the heaviest precipitation is remaining to our west.

A cold front to the west of New England will slowly continue to press east this morning and into the afternoon. The morning's warm and muggy air will slowly be replaced by much cooler and much less humid air by this evening.

There is also a flood watch posted for much of the state west of the Boston area.

The weather will turn drier, but not very sunny for Thursday and Friday. Then we need to be concerned about the influence from Tropical Storm Joaquin. This storm could impact southern New England this weekend or early next week with a period of windswept rain and coastal flooding.

The upper level jet stream configuration is undergoing some major fluctuations. When this happens, the computer models we use to forecast can be less reliable. This is one of the reasons there are so many forecasts that have changed so much in the past 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Joaquin to become a hurricane and move northward along the Atlantic seaboard. This storm is likely to become a hurricane and possibly impact areas from Virginia northward. The latest track as of 5 a.m. is below. We are likely to see some rain from this system, but whether or not the hurricane itself makes it into New England is still highly questionable.

(Courtesy National Hurricane Center)
(Courtesy National Hurricane Center)

Today: Showers and downpours. Possible thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70.

Tonight: Showers ending, much cooler. Lows in the 50s

Thursday: Cool and raw. Lots of clouds. May shower, but mostly dry. Highs in the upper 50s.

Friday: A period of rain possible. Highs near 60.

Saturday and Sunday: Lots of clouds. Scattered showers. Watching for tropical storm potential. Highs in the low to mid 60s.

You can follow David’s weather updates on Twitter at @growingwisdom.

David Epstein Twitter Meteorologist
David Epstein is WBUR's meteorologist.

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