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Why political betting markets are showing different predictions than opinion polls

03:49

Here & Now Newsroom

November 01, 2024

This combination of file photos shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, left, speaking at a campaign rally in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on Oct. 26, 2024, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, right, speaking during a campaign rally on Oct. 22, 2024, in Greensboro, North Carolina. (AP Photo, File)

This year's presidential election is awfully close, according to most polls, pundits and the campaigns themselves. But one increasingly popular place disagrees — political betting markets.

One website, PolyMarket, gives Trump about a 63% chance of winning. What's going on with this discrepancy, and should we take any stock in it?

Yale School of Management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld joined host Scott Tong to help answer that question.

This segment aired on November 1, 2024.

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