WBUR Poll: Clinton Maintains Big Lead Over Trump In Mass.

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Hillary Clinton campaigns in Boston in February. (Jesse Costa/WBUR)
Hillary Clinton campaigns in Boston in February. (Jesse Costa/WBUR)

With three weeks to go until Election Day, Massachusetts seems poised, again, to give the Democratic candidate a very comfortable win in a presidential race.

Hillary Clinton has a 26-point advantage over Republican nominee Donald Trump, according to a WBUR poll of likely Massachusetts voters (topline, crosstabsout Tuesday.

Clinton's 54-28 margin over Trump is the same as a WBUR survey found last month.

It's also right in line with recent presidential results for Democrats in Massachusetts, according to Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducts surveys for WBUR.

President Obama won the state by margins of 23 points and 26 points, respectively, in his elections in 2012 and 2008, John Kerry topped his home state by 25 points in 2004, and Al Gore won Massachusetts by 27 points in 2000.


In the new WBUR poll, Libertarian Gary Johnson, whose running mate, Bill Weld, is a former Massachusetts governor, has the support of 7 percent of likely voters. Three percent back the Green Party's Jill Stein, of Lexington. And 8 percent said "another candidate" or said they don't know.

The live telephone survey of 502 likely voters was conducted Oct. 13-16. It has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

As with presidential polls nationwide and in other states, WBUR's latest finds a massive gender gap. In Massachusetts, in a four-way race, Clinton is up by 8 points among men, but up by 43 points (64-21) among women. Trump is viewed favorably by just 16 percent of likely female voters in the state.

Overall, Clinton is viewed favorably by 52 percent of likely voters in Massachusetts, compared with 40 percent who view her unfavorably. Trump's favorability/unfavorability ratings are 25/68.

Another notable divide this election season has been the so-called diploma divide, with a higher education level corresponding with more support for the Democrat.

In Massachusetts, in a four-way race, Trump leads narrowly among likely voters with a high school diploma or some college, while Clinton holds a huge lead with college graduates. She's up by 40 points among bachelor's degree-holders and up by 63 percentage points among advanced degree-holders.

The latest WBUR survey comes a day before the third and final debate between Clinton and Trump, and as Trump's chances of victory nationally have slipped.

The poll also measured the popularity of two key Massachusetts politicians. The survey found that Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has maintained his strong favorability/unfavorability ratio (55/17) -- with 49 percent of Democrats viewing him favorably. Democratic U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren has favorability/unfavorability ratings of 53/36.

Swasey wrote this digital post, while Koczela joined WBUR's Morning Edition to discuss these poll results. The audio from the conversation is located atop the post.

And Part 2 of this survey, on Massachusetts' four ballot questions, will be published Wednesday.

This article was originally published on October 18, 2016.

This segment aired on October 18, 2016.


Headshot of Benjamin Swasey

Benjamin Swasey Digital Manager
Ben is WBUR's digital news manager.


Headshot of Steve Koczela

Steve Koczela Contributor
Steve Koczela is the president of The MassINC Polling Group and has overseen WBUR's polling since 2011.



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