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Boston's Morning Newsletter
3 things to watch for in today's unusual New Hampshire primary
Editor's Note: This is an excerpt from WBUR's daily morning newsletter, WBUR Today. If you like what you read and want it in your inbox, sign up here.
Voting is underway in the nation’s first presidential primary in New Hampshire, and Nikki Haley is off to a small, early lead thanks to the (not necessarily predictive) residents of Dixville Notch.
Every primary is unique, but this one has been especially weird.
If you’re a New Hampshire resident, make sure to read NHPR’s voting guide before heading to the polls. If you’re reading this from outside the Granite State, here are three things to watch for today:
1. Can Haley make it a race? The polls have been hard to ignore. Across the country, they’ve shown former president Donald Trump leading the Republican primary race by a wide margin, despite his 91 criminal indictments. But in New Hampshire, the race has tightened — at least, relatively. FiveThirtyEight’s average of recent polls shows Trump with 52% support, compared to 37% for Haley, the final GOP alternative. (New Hampshire’s 22 delegates are awarded based on each candidate’s share of the statewide vote, and Trump has a 20-8 lead from Iowa.)
- Haley will probably need help from independent and Democratic voters pulling GOP primary ballots, as WBUR’s Anthony Brooks reports. (Independent voters can choose to vote in either primary, but the deadline for registered Democrats to switch parties has passed.)
- Even if Haley pulls off the improbable in New Hampshire, primary experts say the math remains an “uphill slog” for her in the states that vote next. That includes Haley’s home state of South Carolina, where Trump’s polling lead is more than twice as large.
- Further reading: As Republican primary narrows, N.H. voters face down deep party divides
2. Biden vs. expectations: New Hampshire will be the first test of incumbent President Joe Biden’s strength. However, he’s not on the ballot; he’s ignoring New Hampshire’s primary after New Hampshire ignored his effort to overhaul the Democratic primary calendar. Still, there’s a locally led write-in campaign in support of the president.
- Recent polls have shown Biden with a commanding lead over his main challengers, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson, with anywhere between 49% and 69% support. However, his support is lower when pollsters don’t proactively offer the president’s name in the survey. In a memo last week, the pro-Biden write-in campaign — perhaps trying to lower expectations — said those polls “more closely resemble the situation Granite Staters will face in the voting booth.”
- It’s also worth noting that the Democratic National Committee says it won’t award any delegates based on the outcome of New Hampshire’s primary, which it has called “meaningless.”
- Further reading: The New Hampshire primary is a little unusual for Democrats this year
3. Wait Wait…: You may have to stay up a little later for the results for Democrats. Normally, the results for both parties are reported together. But given the number of Biden write-in votes expected, New Hampshire officials are letting cities and towns announce Republican results this year before the Democratic tally is finished.
South of the border: Massachusetts’ State Ballot Law Commission has decided that it doesn’t have the authority to remove Trump from the state’s March 5 primary ballot. However, the story might not be over yet. Shannon Liss-Riordan, one of the lawyers behind the two challenges to Trump’s eligibility, told WBUR’s Josie Guarino they plan to appeal to the Supreme Judicial Court: “There’s not much time to waste here so we are going straight to the SJC to get this incredibly important issue resolved by the state’s highest court.”
Day three: Newton public schools are closed for a third straight school day, due to the ongoing teachers strike in the city. That means all school-related activities and events are postponed as well.
Her-story: For the first time ever tonight, the Women’s Beanpot title game will be played at TD Garden. (Previously, the women rotated between Boston College, Boston University, Harvard and Northeastern, while the men had played at TD Garden almost every year since 1996.)
- The puck drops between Boston University and Northeastern at 8 p.m. You can still get general admission tickets for a cool $25.
P.S.— After the primary polls close tonight in New Hampshire, we’ll be teaming up with NHPR to bring you on-the-ground updates as they unfold in real time. Tune in to 90.9 to listen to the simulcast and keep tabs on wbur.org for the results, including this town-by-town map.
