Support for MCAS ballot question has a 'bare majority' in new WBUR poll

A slim majority of voters in a WBUR poll support a ballot question that would end the use of standardized tests as a graduation requirement. But with a sizable number of voters still unsure how they might vote, the outcome could swing either way, poll researchers said.

Fifty-one percent of Massachusetts voters said they would vote “Yes” on Question 2, while 34% said they would “No.” Fifteen percent of voters are undecided.

The question is centered around the Massachusetts Comprehensive Assessment System, and whether passing the Grade 10 MCAS exams in math, English and science should be a condition to graduate. A “Yes” vote would end this requirement while a “No” vote would not change anything. The requirement has been in place in Massachusetts for more than two decades.

Holding on to the lead by "a bare majority" is a “precarious place” to be for a ballot question, said Rich Parr, senior research director of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the poll of 800 likely voters for WBUR and The Commonwealth Beacon.

“Very often what happens is that folks who are unsure about a ballot question will default to the no,” Parr said. “I would not be surprised if this got tighter as we got closer to [the election].”

The poll (topline, crosstabs) was conducted Sept. 12-18, and has a margin of error of 4.1%. It was supported with funding from the Knight Election Hub.

The MCAS question is one of five ballot questions being put before voters this election.

Given the heated debate it has so far generated, Question 2 has long been expected to be a close contest.

Nina Gumkowski, a 34-year-old who lives in Brighton, said she has not yet decided how she will vote on the question. She wants to gather more information from people she knows who work closely with students.

“It can be very hard to be held back just because of one test,” she said. “It seems wrong to me, but I also don’t want kids to not get an education they should.”

The WBUR poll shows support for the question among registered Democrats and independents. Republicans are more split on the issue.

Among 18 to 29-year-olds — the voters who most recently were in high school — 46% supported the question and 39% opposed. Fifteen percent of them said they're undecided.

Rob Jones, a retired educator who lives in Westborough, plans to vote "no" on the question. The 62-year-old registered Democrat said while he thinks the test needs to be re-invented, he favors a common universal metric to measure students' learning.

“I am a firm believer in that we should have a minimum standard by which our kids graduate with certain knowledge and certain skillsets and skill levels,” he said.

Jones added that he sees too many high school students under-prepared in some areas.

“I happen to know personally kids that graduate, and they’re like at sixth or seventh grade reading level,” he said.

Brian Clinton, a Westwood resident and father of three kids who attend public school, supports Question 2, saying "everybody learns differently."

“A test isn’t the end-all be-all for whether or not you should be able to graduate high school and whether or not you’re qualified to graduate high school,” he said.

Clinton, who identifies as an independent voter, said he still supports the MCAS being used as an assessment tool and as a means to track progress.

“I could support that,” he said. “I don’t think it should be a criteria to graduate. I do think you should challenge kids, and you should encourage them to do well and succeed. We don’t want them to think they’re getting a free pass either. I think it’s one piece of the puzzle.”

Should Question 2 pass, the state can still administer the Grade 10 MCAS to gather data and measure student progress across districts. Students would still be required to complete coursework that meet state-set curriculum standards.

Most students pass the MCAS on either the first or second try. There are also state-approved test alternatives. About 700 students each year are neither able to pass the Grade 10 MCAS nor fulfill their district's requirements for graduation and thus are denied a diploma.

Question 2 supporters, led by the state’s largest teacher’s union, argue attaching high stakes to the MCAS forces teachers to “teach to the test” and cuts into instructional time. They also say the test disadvantages students with cognitive disabilities, those who do not speak English as a first language or who come from low-income backgrounds.

Question 2 opponents argue the MCAS graduation mandate is the only uniform way to assess whether a student is ready to graduate high school.

Early voting starts on Oct. 19 and goes until Nov. 1, while Election Day is on November 5.

WBUR's Walter Wuthmann contributed to this report.