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Memorial Day weekend forecast is a true spring mix — sun, then showers and a pleasant holiday rebound

As Massachusetts residents head into the unofficial kickoff to summer, they'll no longer feel the record heat, as the holiday weekend brings a big pattern shift to the region.

On Tuesday, Boston smashed record highs by hitting 96 degrees. It was the second-hottest May temperature ever, giving many residents a little taste of summer. But, the atmosphere is set to flip the script.

An overview of highs in Boston expected this Memorial Day weekend. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)
An overview of highs in Boston expected this Memorial Day weekend. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)

While the weekend won't bring beach weather, there's no need to cancel your plans. There will be plenty of bright spots. Here's when you should aim to get outside:

Thursday, the transition begins

The downward slide in temperatures starts Thursday. Expect a damp start to the day, with some lingering showers in the morning.

It’s a "reset" day, as temperatures tumble back into the 60s, about 20 to 30 degrees cooler than earlier this week.

By the afternoon, we should see some gradual clearing from north to south, though the South Coast and the Cape may deal with sprinkles through the evening.

A sunny and warm Friday

Friday brings the brightest and nicest weather of the weekend. The weather will be great for anyone with yard work ambitions or a wish for another reason to duck out of work and jump into the long weekend.

Expect a mix of sun and high, wispy clouds. Temperatures will rebound, with pleasant readings in the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday sees showers move in

If you wanted summer vibes, you'll be a bit disappointed. Things are set to feel more like spring in New England. A storm system that's spinning southwest of Massachusetts will usher in cooler air this weekend.

Clouds will thicken throughout Saturday. While the morning starts dry, showers will begin to sneak into Connecticut first, advancing northeast through the day.

Some scenarios still keep us totally dry until overnight, so the timing and placement of Saturday's potential wet weather bears watching.

It's uncertain how wet Saturday will be this weekend. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)
It's uncertain how wet Saturday will be this weekend. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)

It'll likely be wet out Sunday

Sunday looks to be the dampest day of the weekend stretch. Pockets of showers are likely, especially for the southern two-thirds of New England.

With an easterly wind off the cold ocean, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s and low 60s. It’s definitely "sweatshirt weather," especially for coastal communities.

Memorial Day Monday

The holiday itself will brighten up! While the morning may start gloomy with lingering clouds and showers, the storm center will start to pull away.

As a drier wind takes over, we expect breaks of sun by the afternoon with temperatures pushing back into the mid- to upper-60s, and perhaps even hitting 70 across some inland spots.

Boating and coastal conditions

Here's how high the seas are expected to be Saturday afternoon. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)
Here's how high the seas are expected to be Saturday afternoon. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)

For those planning to hit the water, be mindful of building seas. While Friday and Saturday are relatively quiet (1- to 3-foot seas), conditions change Sunday.

We're expecting 4- to 6-foot seas along the South Coast by Sunday afternoon, building even further to 7 feet offshore by Memorial Day. If you're heading east of Wilkinson Basin, be prepared for choppy conditions.

The seas are expected to be much higher by Monday morning. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)
The seas are expected to be much higher by Monday morning. (Danielle Noyes/1DegreeOutside)

Why the uncertainty on the chance of rain?

We're currently watching a complex "handshake" in the atmosphere. Energy is moving in from the Pacific Ocean and Mexico, and tapping moisture from the Gulf, while a second push of energy is coming down from Canada.

It’s a lot of moving parts, but the big takeaway is this:

  • Friday is the brightest day;
  • Saturday is the most uncertain;
  • Sunday is the coolest and dampest;
  • And finally, Memorial Day offers the best chance for a late-day return to sunny, pleasant weather.

Whether you’re sticking in town, heading to the mountains or the coast, meteorologist Danielle Noyes has got you covered with the free 1DegreeOutside app.

Related:

Headshot of Danielle Noyes
Danielle Noyes Meteorologist, 1°Outside

Meteorologist Danielle Noyes is co-founder of 1°Outside and and regularly offers weather analysis and forecasts to WBUR.

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