Presidential hopeful Nikki Haley is having a moment in New Hampshire. Now comes the hard part

ROCHESTER, N.H. — In New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary race, Randy Olver is the kind of voter candidates are trying to win over. Olver, who lives in Durham, is a lifelong Republican who does not support former President Trump. In fact, he voted for Biden in 2020, the first time he ever cast a ballot for a Democrat, he said. Now, Olver is hoping his party will reject Trump.

"I am not embracing a repeat of a Biden-Trump election," Olver said. "I'm hoping something dramatic happens to avoid that as our only choice."

With a little more than three months to go until the primary, Trump maintains a substantial lead in the race, despite facing more than 90 criminal charges in four separate cases.

But Trump's Republican challengers are campaigning hard to overtake him. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina who served as ambassador to the U.N. in the Trump administration, has jumped into second place ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to recent polls. And she's creating a lot of buzz in the Granite State.

Olver said he is leaning toward Haley, though he's still undecided. With China's rising influence, increasing aggression from Russia, and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East stemming from the Israel-Hamas war, Olver said he wants a candidate with foreign policy experience. So, he attended a recent campaign event in Rochester to see Haley deliver her pitch.

"I have been very impressed with her experience on the international front," Olver said. He also thinks Haley has performed well in Republican debates.

Haley announced her presidential bid in February — the first Republican to challenge Trump — and has been spending a lot of time in New Hampshire, holding dozens of town halls.

"No one is going to out-work me in this race," Haley told the small crowd gathered at the American Legion Hall in Rochester. "No one is going to outsmart me in this race, because we have a country to save."

On many matters, Haley is a staunch conservative. For example, as governor, she signed some of the most restrictive abortion measures ever passed in South Carolina, including a law banning the procedure after 20 weeks. But now she's calling for consensus on an issue that has divided Americans and says a national abortion ban isn't feasible.

In contrast to Trump's slash-and-burn approach to politics, Haley strikes a more moderate tone. For example, she says she wants to cut middle class taxes and blames Republicans — even more than Democrats — for what she sees as run-away government spending. She points out that in the 2024 appropriation budget, Republicans included $7.4 billion worth of earmarks, while Democrats spent less than half that, or $2.8 billion, on their pet projects. Haley ticked off a list of Republican sponsored spending: $30 million for an honors college in Vermont; $10 million to tear down a hotel in Alaska; $7.5 million to fix up a courthouse in Alaska.

"And the list goes on and on," she said. "Now, you tell me who the big spenders are."

Haley called that one of the "hard truths" Republicans need to hear. Another is that Republicans, most recently under Trump, have a terrible record in presidential elections.

"Republicans have lost seven out of eight of the last popular votes for president," she said. "That's nothing to be proud of."

At age 51, and the daughter of immigrants from India, Haley argues that she represents a new generation of leadership that can win. She calls the U.S. Senate "the most privileged nursing home in the country," and doesn't miss a chance to take a swipe at the current 80-year-old president, saying politicians over 75 should be required to undergo mental competency tests.

"We all know 75-year-olds who can run circles around us — and then we know Joe Biden," she said to laughter and a smattering of applause.

On foreign policy, Haley embraces a traditionally muscular Republican approach. She's staunchly pro-Israel and says helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion is in America's national interest. That puts her at odds with other leading candidates in her party, especially Vivek Ramaswamy, with whom she sparred in the first Republican debate in August, accusing the entrepreneur of backing isolationist policies that would "make America less safe."

"You have no foreign policy experience, and it shows," she declared, in one of the more memorable exchanges of that debate.

Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and a longtime observer of the state's primary, said Haley's debate performance helped her break out of a crowded GOP field — and capture the interest of a certain segment of Republican voters "who are not interested in voting for Joe Biden, but they don't want Donald Trump."

That describes Olver, who was leaning toward voting for Haley before the town hall in Rochester, and after seeing her, was even more impressed.

"She does an excellent job connecting with people, and I think the word has to get out," he said. But Olver is concerned that so many candidates splitting the non-Trump vote will only help the former president. If that doesn't change, "we know what the outcome is going to be," he said.

That's Haley's big challenge, according to Scala of UNH. He believes she has a lot going for her: the executive experience of a former governor and a relatively moderate profile — compared to Trump, at least — while offering an alternative to the former president's endless drama.

But Scala says that might not be enough to prevail in New Hampshire's Republican primary, where historically a number of moderates have emerged with a lot going for them, only to fall short. They include John McCain, who won the primary in 2000, but then lost the nomination to George H. W. Bush; John Huntsman, who finished third in 2012; and John Kasich, who finished second behind Trump in 2016.

Scala said that while "Haley has found a niche," now comes the hard part: figuring out how to reach beyond moderates and make her case to other Granite State Republicans, a majority of whom, polls suggest, are sticking with Trump, at least for now.