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Will the Iran war affect gas prices in Massachusetts? Here's what to know
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It's a good Tuesday to top off your tank.
Price shock: Energy industry experts in Massachusetts are bracing for the impact of the American-led military strikes against Iran. President Trump said Monday that the campaign is expected to go on for "four to five weeks," if not longer. As one fuel industry insider told WBUR's Fausto Menard, that mean local price increases isn't a question of if — but of how much and when.
- Why? Iran accounts for only around 4% of global oil production, but any instability in the Middle East can drive up prices, according to Michael Ferrante, the president of the Massachusetts Energy Marketers Association. The global benchmark price for crude oil ticked up as much as 9% on Monday before settling slightly lower. "Once that region is in jeopardy for a possible attack, the market reacts, and it's a worldwide reaction," Ferrante said. The war also led to plummeting tanker traffic through the normally busy Strait of Hormuz off the south coast of Iran — through which 20% of the world's oil travels.
- How much could gas prices rise? Ferrante said it's hard to predict, due to the way gas is refined from oil. In Massachusetts, the average price of a gallon ticked up to $2.98 today, after hovering around $2.90 a gallon for a month, according to AAA. One analyst for the app GasBuddy told NPR the disruption could cause U.S. gas prices to rise by 10-30 cents on average over the next few days. Still, it could be hard to quantify how much of the increase ultimately is from the Iran conflict versus normal seasonal trends in New England. “Even before the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, gasoline prices were poised to begin climbing on seasonal expectations of increased demand and higher production costs,” AAA Northeast spokesperson Mark Schieldrop said in a statement.
- When could you see the impact? It depends on the gas station and their current reserves, Ferrante said. "The replacement costs for those fuels — both heating oil and gasoline — will reflect the higher price," he said. "You might see an increase in one gas station versus another in the next day or so, and an increase in another gas station maybe four or five days from now ... but I'm certain that, if this conflict continues, consumers are going to feel the impact."
- The latest: NPR reports that the Trump administration is urging Americans to leave more than a dozen countries and territories in the Middle East, as the war enters its fourth day. The State Department is also evacuating diplomats and closing certain embassies in the region.
In local politics: It's Election Day on Cape Ann. Voters in Rockport, Gloucester, Essex and Manchester-by-the-Sea will decide who advances today in the special election race to replace longtime state Rep. Ann-Margaret Ferrante, who died of cancer last Thanksgiving. There are two Democrats and two Republicans on the special primary ballot — and the local newspaper The Cricket has a good breakdown of both races here. The winners will face off on March 31 for the 5th Essex District seat.
- Meanwhile, the fall race to succeed retiring state. Sen Pat Jehlen — who represents Medford, Somerville and parts of Cambridge and Winchester — is getting more crowded. Cambridge Day has details on the latest entrant here.
In national politics: Boston is one of five finalists to host the 2028 Democratic National Convention. The Democratic Party announced the shortlist yesterday, which also includes Atlanta, Chicago, Denver and Philadelphia. Party leaders will now visit each city this spring to decide the winning bid. (Ahem, shameless plug.)
- Flashback: Boston last hosted the Democratic National Convention in 2004, during which then-Sen. John Kerry got the party's presidential nomination and a certain Illinois state senator made a very splashy speech.
P.S.— Take it slow on the drive home today. The National Weather Service is forecasting a mix of snow, freezing rain and regular rain in Massachusetts today that could make for a slippery commute tonight and potentially tomorrow morning. Some parts of inland Massachusetts might even get an inch or two of snow.
