What lies ahead for Ukraine

It’s Independence Day in Ukraine.

Official celebrations have been canceled. But the fact that there’s an independent Ukraine at all is celebration enough for Ukrainians.

And President Zelenskyy is vowing to fight on.

"The blue and yellow flag will wave again at home where it has a right to be," the president said. "In all temporarily occupied cities and villages of Ukraine in those temporarily occupied, it will wave forever."

Today, On Point: six months since Russia invaded, is there a path to victory for Ukraine?

Tanya Kozyreva, a Ukrainian investigative journalist and Pulitzer Prize finalist now starting a one-year Neiman Fellowship at Harvard University.

Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a military research and analysis organization. (@KofmanMichael)

Olga Ivshina, correspondent for the BBC Russian Service.

What does this Independence Day feel like to Ukrainians?

Tanya Kozyreva: “It's hard to tell. But I know for sure that it feels like birthday, I would say. And many Ukrainians, I think many more Ukrainians are proud to be Ukrainian these days. And, you know, it's hard. But at the same time, people keep going. Keep doing what they're doing. Keep fighting. Ukrainian soldiers keep fighting and keep protecting the land, in Ukraine. And volunteers are doing the best what they can do in this situation.

"People still donating money, although half of the population is unemployed right now. So everyone doing the best what they can do in this situation. Many Ukrainians left the country, as you know, as refugees. And I think most of them, the main wish they have right now is to be back to Ukraine, to be with their family and with their relatives and friends.”

On how life has changed for Ukrainians

Tanya Kozyreva: “Life in Ukraine changed dramatically. ... If you would go to Ukraine one year ago and now it's two completely different states, and the people are different. And some of the people left, definitely. I think this is their right. Because many those who have kids, they are responsible not only for themselves, but also for the next generation and for their loved ones. I know a lot of family whose husbands are fighting right now, but their mothers and kids, they left the country. Because this is something that is the best for the whole family, I think.”

"It's different ... where the active fighting is ongoing, it's a completely different scene. There is a lack of water, gas. Like there are no basic facilities. I'm probably, it's maybe inappropriate to talk about this on radio. But it's impossible to use basically the toilet, because all the communications are destroyed.

"So it's a hustle. Some people are using just plastic bags to go to the toilet, basically. So it's survival. It's surviving situation. Some of them just decided to stay because they have no place to go. Some of them, you know, have no relatives. They have no money to go anywhere. So this is the only way to live right now. Surviving, you know?”

Winter is coming. Is there worry that these conditions could get worse?

Tanya Kozyreva: "Yes, this is the biggest concern right now. Local politicians warning about that. They're saying that the winter is going to be cold. You know, that people, especially from the eastern part of Ukraine, has to leave this region because all the communications, they're destroyed and broken. People either has to leave or they they has to sign. Basically, they're written a letter where they're saying, I refuse to move from here, or I refuse to leave my home.

"So this situation is going to be really bad, not only in eastern Ukraine. The situation, I think, is relevant to many regions where Russian has been. But they've left already. You know, like some part of Kyiv region, the north of Kyiv region is completely destroyed. And people, they're homeless right now. They're looking for the place to stay. They left the country. So it is not only about east Ukraine, it's also about northern part. It's also about the southern part."

On what Ukrainians would be willing to give up, if anything, to see peace at this stage

Tanya Kozyreva: "It's a very complicated question. I think most of Ukrainians will tell you that they want every square inch, every kilometer of their territory back. And people, relatives who are on occupied territory, they want to return them. They want to have the access to them. They want to travel to those regions. They want to be able to visit their relatives. And this is something that they cannot do right now.

"So, yeah, for many Ukrainians, I think this is a very complicated question. And I don't think this is something that can be decided right now. I'm not sure that Ukrainians are willing to give up Crimea or occupied territory to make a peace deal. I'm unsure about that. And I think for President Zelenskyy, this is one of his motive to continue fighting, and to continue protecting his land, our land. Just because he feel this amount of enormous support from the population of Ukraine."

President Biden has pledged another nearly $3 billion in weapons and other equipment aid. What does that symbolism mean on this day for Ukraine?

Tanya Kozyreva: “I can tell you that all Ukrainians are following international support. And Prime Minister Boris Johnson is very loved by Ukrainians. I know that he's criticized in U.K., but Ukrainians adore him. Because his support mainly and his dedication to support Ukraine, and the same about President Biden.

"If you open Ukrainian newsfeed, Ukrainian social media, or if you're following Ukrainians on social media, you'll see a lot of people who are ... posting about how amazing Boris Johnson and Joe Biden [are], sending this enormous support to Ukraine. So it's something that helps to keep up fighting, I think. For many Ukrainians, and for many Ukrainian soldiers, too.”