Poll paid for by Michael Minogue shows him leading in Republican gubernatorial primary

Michael Minogue, a wealthy former biotechnology executive, holds a lead over his two Republican opponents in the race for governor among primary voters and GOP convention goers, according to a poll paid for by his campaign.

His opponents have balked at the claim, and touted other polling to bolster their standing ahead of a crucial party vote in April.

The Republican candidates running for governor must secure at least 15% of delegates’ votes at the Massachusetts Republican Party’s convention in Worcester next month in order to appear on the primary ballot in September. The winner of that primary will face Gov. Maura Healey, a Democrat, in November's general election.

The poll, which the Minogue campaign shared with WBUR, found the former biotech exec had support from 29% of Republican primary voters and convention attendees. Another 47% of survey respondents were undecided.

The poll found Brian Shortsleeve, a venture capitalist and former MBTA official, had 16% support among primary voters and those attending the Republican convention. Mike Kennealy, a former cabinet secretary under Gov. Charlie Baker, had the backing of 7% of those surveyed.

“While there is a large undecided bloc, not unexpected given the primary calendar, Minogue holds the strongest position and is the only candidate consolidating a meaningful first-choice base across key segments, including conservatives, high-frequency primary voters, and multiple geographic regions,” a memo outlining the poll said.

The poll is one of the first released publicly that attempts to decipher each candidate’s support at the Republican Convention, where they'll fight for access to the ballot. If any of the candidates do not earn 15% of delegates’ vote, their campaign as a Republican ends.

The poll is based on 500 respondents and has a 4.9% margin of error. It was conducted between Feb. 23-24 by Pulse Decision Science, a firm based in Washington, D.C. The survey relied on a “random sample of modeled Republican primary and convention goers” selected from the Massachusetts voter file.

Brian Wynne, Kennealy’s senior advisor and pollster, said Minogue’s survey “has literally zero credibility.”

“What is a ‘modeled GOP convention goer’? The Kennealy campaign has polled the actual list of real GOP convention delegates that all gubernatorial campaigns have access to, and found 38.24% support Kennealy, 35.95% support Minogue, 12.75% support Shortsleeve, and 13.06% are undecided,” Wynne said in a statement.

Wynne said his poll results are based on a sample of roughly 400 delegates the Kennealy campaign has identified as attending the Massachusetts Republican Convention this year from lists of attendees the Republican Party regularly releases.

The Minogue campaign said its own "internal calculations" of convention delegates found Kennealy with less than 15% of support. A spokesperson for Minogue pushed back at Wynne for trying to "muddy the waters with absolutely unattainable nonsense."

"The others aren’t even making the ballot right now, so they should focus on that instead of making up fantasy polls," the spokesperson said.

Holly Robichaud, a political strategist working for Shortsleeve, said Minogue has burned millions of dollars in “vanity advertising” and criticized the former biotechnology executive for past legal issues with the company he led, heart pump maker Abiomed.

“He cannot hide his record forever, and Maura Healey would have a field day picking him apart. Republicans beware,” Robichaud said in a statement.

Other polls have shown different outcomes in the Republican primary.

A survey conducted by Suffolk University in November found that Brian Shortsleeve led Kennealy and Minogue among likely Republican voters with 22% of the vote. Kennealy held 13% of the vote and Minouge had 6%, while another 59% were undecided, the poll found.

A poll released last month by the University of New Hampshire suggested that any one of the Republican primary candidates would struggle in a matchup against Healey. The governor has also held comfortable approval ratings in multiple polls released over the past year.